What Trump's 15% tariff change means for Indian export plays

Textile, shrimp, gem stocks gain the most after US-India trade deal

Indian export-oriented stocks, spanning textiles, aquaculture and gems are back in the spotlight after US President Donald Trump announced 15 percent global tariffs on all imports for 150 days, effective February 26, just a day after the US Supreme Court invalidated his earlier tariff orders. However, since most of these stocks had already rallied sharply following the announcement of the India-US interim trade deal, analysts believe that much of the optimism is now priced in, and the next move will depend on how further tariff announcements unfold.

Gaurang Shah, Senior Vice-President at Geojit Financial Services, said there is limited scope for a sustained rally in most export-oriented stocks.

“While some near-term upside could emerge following the Supreme Court verdict, meaningful gains would require clearer visibility on final tariff rates and long-term trade arrangements,” Shah said.

Sectors with heavy exposure to the US, particularly textiles, marine products and gems were among the biggest gainers after the initial announcement of India’s interim trade deal with the US. Stocks such as Gokaldas Exports, which derives nearly 70 percent of its revenue from the US, surged 29 percent. Similarly, shrimp exporters Avanti Feeds and Apex Frozen Foods rallied sharply, gaining between 50 and 70 percent.

However, India’s relative advantage has narrowed under the new tariff structure.

Earlier, India faced tariffs of around 18 percent, compared to Bangladesh at 19 percent and Vietnam at 20 percent, giving Indian exporters a slight edge. With a uniform 15 percent global tariff now in place for 150 days, this advantage has reduced, placing competing exporters back on a more level playing field.

That said, market expert Sunil Subramaniam pointed out that these sectors were earlier dealing with duties ranging from 18 to as high as 50 percent. “Any reduction in tariffs is positive, as it helps ease margin pressure,” he said. He added that small- and mid-cap engineering firms, which had seen export order books shrink sharply, could also see some recovery.

Auto ancillary stocks such as Bharat Forge, Sona Comstar and Samvardhana Motherson had come under pressure following the ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs but recovered later, as managements highlighted export diversification, a stronger focus on domestic business, and potential gains from a free trade agreement with the European Union as key measures to offset the impact.

For now, uncertainty remains, as the US administration has indicated it may explore alternative legal routes to impose trade restrictions. This has raised concerns that tariff-related volatility could persist despite the court ruling. The ongoing back-and-forth has reinforced the view that while short-term relief rallies are possible, long-term clarity on trade policy remains elusive.

Looking ahead, market experts believe sustained outperformance across export-linked sectors will hinge on long-term trade clarity rather than temporary tariff relief.