That international slowdown will limit the strength of the new Indian cycle, economists say.
While a recent FICCI survey points to rising capacity utilisation and an improvement in the outlook for manufacturing, rising inflation and tightening monetary policy may delay capex
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Government capex is expected to remain elevated particularly in the light of the growing tax revenues, an endeavour to fill the void caused by the slowdown in private capex and general elections in 2019.
Investment cycle in the private sector is negative with capacity utilisation still only around 70 percent. KVS Manian at Kotak Mahindra Bank says utilisation levels will likely cross 80 percent over the next 9-12 months, and trigger investments.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18 Ashok Wadhwa, Group CEO of Ambit, said that demonetisation has reduced the consumption engine which was propelling the Indian economy.
It will be a few more quarters before general consumption and investment cycles pick up, said Ashok Wadhwa of Ambit Capital. He added that he expects a strong positive consumption cycle in the first half of FY18 and an uptick in investment cycle in FY19 subsequently.
According to D&B Economy Observer Index, while government capital expenditure has gone up, low private investment is likely to keep upturn in investment activity 'subdued' in the short term, while the medium term outlook looks bullish.
"There are early signs that the investment climate may be looking up. But, this is not yet well- spread and is concentrated in specific industries and states,"says a report by ratings agency CARE.
Disappointed with the RBI's decision to leave policy rates unchanged, India Inc on June 7 said a rate cut would have helped restore the investment cycle as the industry continues to battle a slump in demand
Private investments are still a long way from being desirable. Only a recovery in demand will incentivise the private players to come forward and put down money, says Naushad Forbes, the newly appointed president of Confederation of Indian Industry.
Dhirendra Tiwari of Antique Stock Broking believes eventually investment recovery will come through, though it has been delayed. Keeping that in mind, investors need to find stocks that will benefit from investment cycle recovery over the next two years
According to Sashi Krishnan, CIO, Birla Sun Life Insurance, there are signs of pick up in investment cycle, which would bring in the DIIs and FIIS that have been waiting on the sidelines.
According to Vikram Limaye, MD & CEO, IDFC, there is yet no sign of pick up in investment cycle and the rural economy. So, unless that picks up, it would be difficult for growth to see an uptick.
This is both because of the fundamental merits of the local fixed income market and also because the government continues to open the market gradually to foreign capital, says the GREED & Fear newsletter of brokerage house CLSA
The impact of the steel sector has been such that the stock of stalled projects increased after falling for five quarters.
As companies report quarterly earnings, a lot of share prices are moving in sync with trends witnessed therein.
India's business as well as economic cycles turned on sentiment (positive) though some critics argue that the government has achieved little, but PhillipCapital finds the mechanics of the government functioning to be sound.
The government is hoping to roll out the GST from April 1, 2016 and the ideal rate for it will be the one which is revenue neutral, Sinha added.
Recent developments have led some analysts to believe that it may now be time to start looking at the cyclical and leveraged companies. CNBC-TV18 put up the question to Lalit Nambiar of UTI MF.
Arora expects the upcoming Union Budget to kickstart the investment cycle in the country. She is hopeful that the Budget will focus on reviving infrastructure growth, besides spelling guidelines for recapitalization of PSU banks
Gubbi is advising his clients to buy Indian equities from a 2-3 year perspective as the long term story is attractive. He is bullish on consumer stocks, infrastructure, power and capital goods. and bearish on IT and pharma
Leo Puri, MD of UTI AMC believes it is imperative that both the Reserve Bank and the government demonstrate commitment with regard to monetary policy and reforms respectively.
A Kotak Institutional Equities report says net profit of the BSE-30 Index grew 6 percent year-on-year, well below expectation of 10.1 percent growth; while EBITDA grew 1.8 percent, 3.8 percent lower than expectation.
The government's reform drive is working well to boost sentiment among foreign investors -- that's the word from top investment bankers. However, speaking to CNBC-TV18‘s Archana Shukla, the market veterans also added that a real pick-up in the investment cycle is still a few quarters away.