MC Interview | Opposition front must be an alliance of equals in order to succeed: Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India

Until there's a credible alliance, stopping the BJP remains a daunting task, says Pradeep Gupta.

“The united front the opposition is putting up needs to be an alliance of equals if it is to give the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) a tough fight,” said Pradeep Gupta, a psephologist and Managing Director, Axis My India, whose exit poll predicted landslide victory for the Congress in Karnataka.

On June 23, leaders from 15 opposition parties reached an agreement to come together and contest the 2024 general elections together, presenting a united front against the BJP.

These parties collectively hold less than half the 301 seats the BJP has in the 542-member Lok Sabha.

In an interview to Moneycontrol, Gupta spoke on opposition unity, the upcoming assembly polls in five states, and on parties gearing up for 2024’s battle royale.

Read: AAP will participate in opposition parties' meeting in Bengaluru: MP Raghav Chadha

2024 elections and opposition unity

Two things are important in an election — brand equity and converting that into votes.

“The opposition is trying to build a perception with a grand alliance. The important thing is to see who is better placed on the ground to convert the perception into votes,” said Gupta.

Also, it needs to be a partnership among equals. “It’s a problem if the alliance partners are not equal. We will have to see who’s strong on the ground, who can get the votes and win elections,” added Gupta.

One state where an alliance can play a role is Uttar Pradesh, though last time it didn’t work. The Bahujan Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party fought the 2019 elections together in Uttar Pradesh, along with the RLD.

“They got close to 37.5 percent of the votes in Uttar Pradesh, and won only 15 seats. The BJP, in alliance with Apna Dal, got 64 seats out of 80,” said Gupta.

This time the BSP has decided to stay away, and the Congress and the SP don’t have a strong equation.

The Congress and the BJP do not have an alliance in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Assam, and Himachal Pradesh.

In Haryana, the Lok Dal too has not indicated who it’ll go with — the BJP or the opposition. Punjab and Delhi are governed by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), but it is not yet clear whether it will be part of the joint opposition or not.

In Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference (NC) and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) are equals and are seen to be united.  In West Bengal, the Congress got zero seats in the last assembly elections and it doesn’t have a good equation with Trinamool Congress.

In Bihar, the RJD-JDU partnership is an alliance of equals, and it may dent the BJP. In Maharashtra, the MVA coalition has been rent asunder.

“We will need to see how the NCP can help the alliance. If a major part of the NCP joins the NDA, then it's beneficial for the BJP. In Karnataka, the JDS seems to be with the NDA. In Tamil Nadu, it’s a straight fight between the DMK and the AIADMK. The alliance doesn’t come into play,” said Gupta.

Except in Bihar and Maharashtra, the opposition front doesn’t seem to be an alliance of equals.

“I can’t see any other state where an opposition front can play a role. So in a nutshell, until there’s a credible alliance, it’s very difficult to stop the BJP,” said Gupta.

Madhya Pradesh

Talking about the political scenario in Madhya Pradesh, Gupta said that it seems that Shivraj Singh Chouhan is the preferred choice of the people. He has been running the government for almost 15 years, except the 15-month tenure of Congress’ Kamal Nath, when the grand old party formed the government, but ended up losing it.

“Usually, anti-incumbency is seen as a major reason for any government’s ouster, and this was the reason why people voted the Congress to power in 2018. However, this time there is not much anti-incumbency, which gives an edge to the ruling party,” said Gupta.

However, the regional parties are strong in areas such as the Chambal and Baghelkhand regions, and the BSP has also got a chunk of the votes, but cut into the Congress’ share.

Rajasthan

Gupta said that Rajasthan has mostly thrown incumbent governments out of power.

There are two major parties that will be facing each other here, the Congress and the BJP. As of now, the BJP has not projected a credible chief ministerial face, and neither has the Congress, where there’s a conflict between Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot.

“Face is very important in elections. It actually gives people the opportunity to see who will work better for the state,” said Gupta. Last time, the slogan “Modi tujhse bair nahi, Vasundhra teri khair nahi,” (Modi, there is no hatred towards you, Vasundhara, your fate is uncertain) had become quite popular.

He said the situation will be clearer in the near future.  The central leadership in both the parties have a major role to play in winning the state.

Chhattisgarh

In this tribal-dominated state, the incumbent government tends to be voted back to power. Here too, the BJP is yet to project a credible face.

The incumbent Congress government had seen cracks develop between Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel and senior leader TS Singh Deo, but after the latter was made Deputy Chief Minister, the matter has been resolved to a large extent, said Gupta.

“The final results can be anything, it is too early and difficult to say anything. But when internal conflict is resolved, it does help the party. The Congress has been able to cement its position in the state,” said Gupta.

Telangana

It’s a new state and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) led by Chief Minister K. Chandrashekhar Rao has been ruling it for two consecutive terms.

“There will be anti-incumbency against the BRS government. On the other hand, a credible alternative is important. The Congress and the BJP will be considered very seriously. In the Lok Sabha, the BJP has four seats from the state, while the Congress has three. However, the two parties were nowhere in the assembly elections,” said Gupta.

He said that while the BJP has been trying hard to make inroads in the state, the Congress has made an impact in southern India thanks to Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra.

“We have to see who is the chief ministerial face of these parties. Also, if votes get split, BRS again has a chance of forming the government again,” he added.

Mizoram

The state is all about the regional players, as national parties like the Congress and the BJP have not invested much here. It is a tiny state and national parties usually don’t focus on it, because of which regional players make the government.