Amid signs of anti-incumbency in Andhra Pradesh, stage set for another bitter Jagan-Naidu face-off in 2024

N Chandrababu Naidu (left) and Jagan Mohan Reddy.

The elections for the Andhra Pradesh Legislative Council held in the second and third weeks of March provided a much-needed elixir to Telugu Desam Party (TDP) supremo N Chandrababu Naidu. Hardly a year is left for the Andhra Pradesh assembly elections now.

Naidu, who is credited with anointing at least two non-Congress opposition leaders HD Deve Gowda and Atal Bihari Vajpayee as Prime Ministers in the mid-1990s, has been literally out in the wilderness ever since his party’s humiliating rout in the 2019 assembly elections. That election scripted a steep downfall for Naidu in his lengthy political career, lasting well over four decades.

TDP Turns A Corner

Coming back to the legislative council polls, all the seats under the graduates’ quota went to the Opposition, including three that the TDP gained. The ruling YSR Congress (YSRC) drew a blank in this segment reserved for graduates. What was more embarrassing for the Jagan Mohan Reddy government is the TDP winning a seat from the MLAs quota with a tacit support of four lawmakers from the ruling party.

It is the first ray of hope for the TDP since 2019 as the party was allegedly prevented from even filing nominations in the local bodies elections by the ruling party. The TDP had stayed away from fielding candidates in bypolls to the Tirupati Lok Sabha seat and the Badvel and Atmakur assembly segments.Naidu, through the council elections, has sent out a clear message that he is not down and out but only lying low.

Jagan Reddy, who swept to power by winning 151 out of 175 assembly seats in 2019, has lost ground with anti-incumbency triggered by his four-year rule beginning to manifest. Reddy is the unquestionable leader in his party but is now staring at signs of rebellion in his own flock of MLAs. It could be a sign that he is also losing grip over his party machinery.

Jagan In Trouble?

The “rogue” four lawmakers – who voted against the YSRC in the council election – accused Jagan of running a one-man show and levelled allegations of corruption against his “proxy” Sajjala Ramakrishna Reddy. More damagingly, they said that Jagan had reduced the elected MLAs and even the cabinet ministers to mere figureheads. Among the four dissidents was the defiant Vundavalli Sri Devi representing Tadikonda in the heart of Amaravati expressed her strong resentment against Jagan’s plans to shift the state capital out of Amaravati.

The loss of MLC seats from the graduates’ constituencies by the YSR Congress party can be interpreted as a reflection of increasing antipathy among people towards the Jagan regime. After all, the five graduates’ segments spread over 108 assembly constituencies comprised an electorate of 75 lakh representing a significant cross-section of society.

The results reflected the growing discontent among educated youth over dwindling job opportunities. The government’s failure to undertake teacher recruitments through the District Selection Committee since Jagan came to power and increasing the retirement age to 62 years for government employees has further left jobless youths restive. Jagan not phasing out the contributory pension scheme did not keep even the government employees happy either.

Another widening faultline is the Jagan government’s welfare agenda, marked by massive freebies, which has created a chasm between the poor and the educated and urban middle class sections. The educated and urban middle class sections have begun to feel that the government is doling out huge amounts of public money to the poor while neglecting development on industrial and infra fronts.

YSRC’s failure to win the graduates’ seat representing the north coastal Andhra region serves as a warning to Jagan. Even the promise to deliver capital city status for Visakhapatnam, which falls right in the heart of that region, did not work in his party’s favour.

But Naidu Needs Allies

Naidu, meanwhile, is basking in the rising anti-incumbency against Jagan’s rule, which he has been witnessing through massive crowds at his public rallies across the state. The ageing TDP leader, who turns 74 in April next, is playing the age card to the hilt and tugging at heartstrings asking people to give him a “Chivari Avakasam” (Last Chance).

It’s a counter-narrative to Jagan’s “Oka Avakasam” (One Chance, Please) slogan with which he swept the polls in 2019. Naidu hopes to win the next election as he did in 2014 and knows TDP needs allies to bridge the gap with Jagan.

But PM Narendra Modi is averse to mending fences with Naidu after he severed ties with NDA and joined hands with the Congress in 2018. The TDP leader is left with pinning all hopes on Jana Sena leader and actor Pawan Kalyan who is still in the BJP’s fold.

At the end of the day, all these players know that it is only power that matters, irrespective of whatever happened in the past. Naidu, who was once the pivot of political alignments at the national level, will rue that he is finding no mention in the national press despite the heated political developments in Delhi.

With all his experience as a coalition builder, Naidu would certainly love to don the kingmaker’s role again. But a resurrection in his fortunes lie in the hands of the voters of Andhra Pradesh and the outcomes of the 2024 Lok Sabha and assembly elections.

Gali Nagaraja is a senior journalist, formerly associated with The Hindu, The Times of India, and Hindustan Times for over three decades. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.