Why India is better poised than China to facilitate peace between Moscow and Kiev

India has vantage in brokering peace deal between Russia and Ukraine.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is expected to visit Delhi this week. If the visit comes through he will become the first high ranking Ukrainian official to visit India since the start of Russia's special military operations in Ukraine in February 2022.

The main objective of Kuleba’s visit is to drum up support for Ukraine’s peace plan and India's participation in the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland, scheduled for some time before summer. He will also be reviewing the India-Ukraine inter-governmental commission, focusing on bilateral economic, cultural and technological ties.

India’s Role as Peace Maker

There were recent reports that the US had to lean on India and China to avert a possible nuclear strike by Russia on Ukrainian targets. Can India take the lead over China which has also been engaging in a diplomatic charm offensive on the Ukraine conflict recently?

While both China and India share close ties with Russia, China's ties, by dint of its geography and economy, go even deeper. India, did not condemn Russia's military operations in Ukraine, and continued to defy western pressure to buy discounted Russian oil, has balanced its relations with Ukraine better.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has spoken several times over phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, most recently on 20th March, whereas Chinese President Xi Jingping first spoke to Zelensky only in April 2023, more than a year into the conflict. Modi even met with Zelensky last year on the sidelines of a G7 summit in Hiroshima. India has delivered fifteen consignments of humanitarian aid to Ukraine since the conflict began.

China’s Role For Peace

China has floated its own 12-point peace proposal for Ukraine, which has been rejected by the West, and its special envoy Li Hui has been engaging in shuttle diplomacy visiting Moscow, Kyiv, Brussels and other European capitals. Yet, China has not participated in all the peace conferences held on the conflict so far, unlike India.

Moreover, some Chinese strategists also see Beijing's renewed peace diplomacy as a means for China to improve its relations with the European Union, and refurbish its image as a leader of the Global South.  A recent report in the Voice of America says that China continues to present "the most comprehensive and serious challenge" to America's national security. These are concerns that India does not have.

Ukraine-Russia Conflict worsens

Kuleba’s visit will also come when the conflict has taken an ominious turn, with the terror attacks near Moscow, in which 143 people have died and more than 150 have been wounded. While the Islamic State-Khorasan has taken responsibility for the attacks, Russian authorities have pointed the finger at Kyiv. Irrespective of who the guilty ultimately turn out to be, any such attack on Russian soil, particularly now, will widely be perceived to be tied to the Ukraine conflict.

The conflict currently is tilted in Russia’s favour because of its superior military, it weathered the Western sanctions well, and ramped up its military production.

Meanwhile, Ukraine -- entirely dependent on NATO members for arms and resources, is struggling. Yet, aid is not forthcoming. The US Congress has blocked the $60 billion-dollar aid package; NATO members are divided on how much more aid to be given to Ukraine, and, except France, no one wants to commit boots on the ground. Its counter-offensive, attacking targets inside Russia have failed, inviting more wrathful Russian response.

India’s Growing Ties with Russia

With the re-election of President Vladimir Putin, India's ties with Russia are set to grow. Just hours before his call with Zelensky, Modi had a call with Putin to congratulate him on his re-election. Last week the Kremlin said that Modi has an invitation to visit Russia to hold a meeting with Vladimir Putin, which would be coordinated accordingly.

India has called for diplomacy and discussion to resolve the conflict on several occasions. India, like much of the Global South, would like an end to the conflict. For the longer the conflict continues, greater the possibilities of it getting out of control.

According to sources, Russia has also reached out to India. Last week a high level delegation from Moscow paid a quiet visit to Delhi. Delhi is in an ideal situation to get both sides to sit together at the negotiating table. It can certainly play a role in getting, for instance, Ukraine to rethink its law, which forbids talks with Russia under Putin, which is an immediate impediment. It is imperative that India now take the lead, from its vantage point, to facilitate talks between Moscow and Kyiv.

Aditi Bhaduri is a journalist and political analyst. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.