OPINION | Uddhav Thackeray’s identity-based campaign kept him afloat but victory without a development agenda is impossible

Not finished yet, but limitations of relying only on identity are clear

Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT) has lost control of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). However, the party may have dodged a bullet considering that it was split down the middle and ended up at just 20 seats in the assembly polls in 2024.

With 65 corporators in BMC, the party is not in an existential crisis as was feared after the assembly polls. However, the campaign of the UBT Sena does raise serious questions about its future.

Realignment among Senas

In a bid to claim (or reclaim) the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray, Uddhav gave explicit indications of mending fences with his estranged cousin Raj Thackeray whose Maharashtra Navnirman Sena never really took off. The reunion started with the two cousins dining at each other's homes. The Congress, sensing that the cousins would focus only on the Marathi Manoos, decided to go its own way and tied up with Prakash Ambedkar's Bahujan Vikas Aghadi.

In the end it was BJP-Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena versus UBT Sena-MNS versus Congress-VBA.

Overplaying the identity card

Since the results, media is flooded with analyses on how the divisive agenda of the cousins threw the UBT out. There is certainly merit in the argument. The 'Gaddar' (traitor) jibe against Eknath Shinde had already failed in the assembly polls. Plus, this jibe was meaningless in seats where the contest was with BJP.

So, the Marathi Manoos was the only plank left for Uddhav. It may have been less noticeable if articulated in a smarter way but the muscular style and expletive-coloured speeches of Raj Thackeray went too far. These speeches got Raj Thackeray lots of media headlines, whistles and cheers from the crowds but hardly any votes. His 'Rasmalai' jibe at BJP's leader Annamalai made perfect meme material across social media platforms on result day. MNS folded up at 6 seats, thus pulling down Uddhav as well instead of adding to the UBT's strength.

'Outsider' politics has diminishing returns  

The politics of attacking the 'outsider' and whipping up local sentiments is for the short-term players. The BMC polls prove that adequately.

There is no doubt that this brand of politics gets traction by creating a sense of victimhood or 'being wronged' among a certain population. But unless it is complemented with a performance/ governance-based agenda, the sentiment alone may not take the party very far.

Nevertheless, the fact that UBT Sena got 65 seats also shows that the Marathi Manoos plank wasn't a wash out.

A rough break up of Mumbai's population shows Marathi speakers constitute 35% while North Indians, South Indians, Gujaratis and others together constitute a whopping 65%. Even among the 35% Marathi-speakers the Shinde Sena and Devendra Fadnavis's thrust on improving governance and infrastructure seems to have held appeal. In the end, it was all about arithmetic.

Sub-nationalism works with governance

Prof. Ashwini Kumar of TISS, sociologist and author, says the Marathi Manoos slogan should not be seen as against the outsider. It is more about Marathi Asmita (Marathi pride) rather than the 'other'. But all over the country, sub-nationalism works when it is coupled with promise of good governance.

In the case of Mumbai, he said, the BJP-Shiv Sena won because voters went for the promise of infrastructure, improving civic facilities and making Mumbai a well-governed city. Even in other states where the sentiment of sub nationalism was visible, governance matters, Prof Kumar pointed out. He emphasized that in social analysis there was no othering visible in the society, between local population and migrants, except in statements of politicians and media headlines.

Root cause of Local vs Outsider sentiment is lop-sided development

The root cause of this local versus outsider sentiment is lop-sided development of the country. Traditionally, workforce migration from states where industries are scant to states where trade, industry, business flourish, has provided fodder to political parties/ organisations to whip up these sentiments and create social divisions. Only when government policies and leaders in the less developed states ensure equitable development, will this brand of politics wane.

Migrants versus illegal infiltrators

Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Puducherry will be going to polls soon. Assam and Bengal are already in election mode if political activity is any indication. BJP which is ruling Assam and is the principal opposition in Bengal is building up infiltration as a major election plank. Both these states have undergone serious demographic changes due to illegal infiltrators from Bangladesh settling down in the border districts and acquiring necessary documents to vote and work like any Indian.

Whether the Ghuspaithia (infiltrator) campaign will strengthen the BJP in West Bengal will be known after elections but Mamata Bannerjee has been opposing the SIR exercise from the law courts to the streets every day. She has accused BJP of using EC to disenfranchise genuine voters while BJP argues that infiltrators facilitated by the Left Front and then TMC will be flushed out in the process and cleanse the voters list.

(Smita Mishra is Advisor, Prasar Bharati.)

Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.