TMC-Congress ‘Breakup’: Why Mamata Banerjee’s announcement is mere posturing

Apart from seat-sharing, Banerjee is also averse to the idea of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar being named as the convenor of the INDIA bloc.

Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee's announcement that her party will fight it alone in West Bengal appears to be more of a pressure tactic on the Congress over seat-sharing for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.

Out of the total 42 Lok Sabha constituencies in West Bengal, the Congress has been demanding 10-12 seats and is willing to settle for four, but the Trinamool Congress is not ready to give more than two – Baharampur and Malda South.

The Congress quickly tried to pacify the Trinamool Congress chief by saying that it cannot imagine an INDIA alliance without Banerjee.

The West Bengal chief minister also does not want the Communist Party of India (Marxist)-CPI(M) to be a part of the alliance and is unwilling to accommodate the Left in seat-sharing.

All three – Congress, Trinamool Congress and the Left – are currently part of the INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) bloc and in all previous meetings of the grouping had pledged to fight unitedly against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Banerjee knows it well that any division of votes will help the BJP as had happened in 2019. While the Trinamool Congress won 22 seats, the BJP gained massively by bagging 18 seats. The Congress got two.

In the 2021 assembly elections, the Muslims had dumped the Congress-Left alliance and overwhelmingly voted for the Trinamool Congress, enabling a convincing third term for Banerjee. The primary reason was that the minorities then saw the Trinamool Congress as a better option than the Congress-Left combine in taking on the BJP.

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As per the 2011 Census, Muslims account for 27.01 per cent (over 2.47 crore) of the state’s total population of 9.13 crore. Of late, the minorities are visibly disenchanted with the Trinamool Congress over the functioning of the state government and have shown a tilt towards the Congress, which has also gained a lot of traction among the Muslims across the country.

This is evident from the support the Congress got from the community in Karnataka, Telangana and other states where the assembly elections were held last year. Banerjee is keen to ensure consolidation of Muslims without antagonising the Hindus and for that she wants the Congress more than the grand old party needs the Trinamool Congress.

Apart from seat-sharing, Banerjee is also averse to the idea of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar being named as the convenor of the INDIA bloc or its prime ministerial face. She surprised everyone in the fourth meeting of the grouping on December 19 last year by suggesting that Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge should be the prime ministerial face of the opposition coalition.

Also read: Lok Sabha Election 2024: Congress-AAP deal in limbo over 20 seats in Delhi and Punjab

She got the backing of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader and Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal, but Kharge insisted that the issue should be tackled after the elections. She had clearly thrown an unexpected spanner in Nitish’s plan.

As of now, Banerjee’s announcement seems mere posturing and the last word has not been spoken yet on the alliance.

Aurangzeb Naqshbandi is a senior journalist who has been covering the Congress for 15 years, and is currently associated with Pixstory. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.