India overtakes China in population: What next?

India’s population is predicted to reach its peak growth over the next 30 years

The population data released by the United Nations has cemented India’s position as the most populous country, overtaking China. Not only is this development momentous as India leads G20 affairs while holding the Presidency, it also entails the hope and spirit of India 2.0 as envisioned by our Prime Minister when he famously stated that India will be a $5 trillion economy in 2025.

India’s population is predicted to reach its peak growth over the next 30 years and instead of developing “population anxiety”, this must be seen as an opportunity to unleash the “demographic dividend” potential.

Almost 40 percent of India’s population is below the age of 25, which means 4 out of every 10 Indians are young. Harnessing the strength of this demographic dividend requires crucial and precise planning for the next 30 years. With constantly increasing unemployment (7 percent) in the country and a poor case of skill development, there is a danger of the demographic dividend turning into a demographic disaster.

The news of India leading in terms of the population should be seen as an opportunity to ensure the expansion of the major pillars of the country like its economy, education, employment, and health. The 2015 National skilling policy notes that only 4.7 percent of the total workforce has undergone formal skill training. Although the country has a literacy rate of 74.04 percent, the graduation rate stands at a mere 8.15 percent according to the last Census.

The New Education Policy 2022, the increasing budget allocation for education every year and programs like Pradhan Mantri Kaushal Vikas Yojana aiming at skill development are promising. But a speedier rate of change in the education sector and impact analysis of existing schemes and programs are integral for strengthening the country’s growth.

Unlike China which has a large urban population, India’s major share of the population resides in its rural heartland, which is almost 65 percent according to recent World Bank data. Mahatma Gandhi believed that the soul of India lived in its villages and was determined that India’s path to growth and development should stem from its villages.

However, what remains a popular solution for the challenges of rural India is the overburdened MGNREGA which is losing its sheen and glory. The lack of employment opportunities for the youth of rural India and the overpopulated agricultural fields are holding back villages of India from achieving any real progress, while pushing desperate youth to migrate to cities and urban centres for employment.

According to my estimation, internal migrants will touch the one billion mark in the next 10 to 15 years. But the real question is whether our cities are equipped to handle such a massive inflow of labourers. Although the Smart Cities Mission aims at transforming the lives of the urban population, these plans are not inclusive of the needs of the migrant labourers who makes up an indispensable section of these cities.

The success of the One Nation One Ration Card has led to a discussion on portable schemes that can benefit migrants. Covid-19 has taught us the importance of investing in transportation and health infrastructure. It is high time the government takes note of such basic needs of a marginalised section like that of migrants.

The lack of opportunities in the home country and aspiration for a better life has led to the international migration of almost 20 million Indians as of 2023. Naturally, this number is bound to increase with the rising population.

Unlike China, India had lost out on the opportunity to seize manufacturing domination due to the delay in its reform period and was not able to create sufficient job opportunities for the Indian youth. With such a structural transformation continuing to be a distant dream, Indian youth has been increasingly seeking opportunities outside their home country.

The recent phenomena of ageing and declining population in developed countries including countries like Japan and even China have led to the creation of a market for migrant labourers. India has the golden opportunity to utilise this gap in the market by proactively promoting migration and not merely facilitating the same. The Philippines Model is a good example to understand how the promotion of migration helped push the country’s economy forward.

Family planning in India continues to be a rigorous exercise that is allotted considerable resources. However, a continuing focus on family planning to reduce fertility could even lead to an increase in sex-selective abortion. On a similar note, I must also add that there need to be more targeted efforts to understand the challenges of the women in our country in terms of their education, health and employment.

They make up 48 percent of the population but contribute only around 17 percent of the country’s GDP. This is not primarily due to a lack of employment opportunities but rather constraints in access to these possibilities. Our labour market is not flexible to be inclusive of the reproductive labour of women thereby contributing to the employment gap between women and men in the country. Developed economies have proved that increase in the education of girls and employment of women can lead to an increase in the country’s GDP and growth.

Although slow when compared to other developed countries, India must be mindful of its ageing population (10 percent of the total population) and should intensely invest in infrastructure that ensures this dependent section of the population does not go on to cause a demographic transition crisis in the future.

In short, the news of India becoming the most populous country couldn’t have come at a better time as we hold a very significant position in today’s geopolitics and also possess a demographic dividend that, if effectively utilised and made resourceful, can propel India to newer heights.