How Vladimir Putin’s world view complicates the Russia-Ukraine crisis

(Image: Reuters)

There is a section of policy makers in Russia who are not quite happy about their country’s current status. They are still rankled by how their beloved Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was reduced to Russia in 1991 after 15 republics opted out.

Especially unhappy are members of the KGB, the overpowering intelligence agency, who found themselves powerless after the development. They have never been able to assert themselves because the collapse of Soviet Union was primarily because of the KGB. The oversized intelligence agency (that had an oversight over every aspect of Soviet life) had become so bloated, inefficient, and corrupt that it fuelled the collapse.

One official who left the KGB in 1991 was a lieutenant colonel rank operative, Vladimir Putin, who had served the organisation for over 16 years. Putin joined politics thereafter, and is now the President of Russia. But his mindset has not changed. Even now Putin is pained by the collapse of the Soviet Union, and he has expressed this numerous times. In late 2021, he lamented that the collapse of the USSR was the ‘demise of the historical Russia’ hinting that he did not want it at all. Putin is especially upset by the separation of Ukraine.

In the 9th century when Russia was formed, its capital was Kiev, which is currently the capital of Ukraine. When under the USSR, the map of Ukraine was reconfigured many times, but nobody could complain because of the totalitarian regime that held sway.

During Joseph Stalin’s long reign (1922-53) there were famines in eastern Ukraine (known as Holodomor) in which millions died. This gave an opportunity for the Russians to migrate and take over the region. That is why now eastern Ukraine has a large Russian-speaking population.

In the USSR, the Communist regime never thought it was doing some favour by making new investments in Ukraine. Many of them were nuclear facilities (including Chernobyl). Overall, funds generated here were transferred to Russia and Kazakhstan to finance development in these regions.

When the USSR was dissolving, Ukraine, which got a chance to be a separate country, naturally did not resist. There were no problems from Moscow either — at least this did not manifest openly. This was also because the whole of USSR was in turmoil.

When Ukraine became an independent country, along with it went Crimea, a peninsula which lay on its southern part. Crimea provided the USSR a warm water port, and was annexed in the 17th century to become a part of Russia. In 1954, Crimea was transferred to the territorial jurisdiction of Ukraine by the then Soviet ruler Nikita Khrushchev, possibly because it was geographically contagious to Ukraine. Thus when Ukraine got independent in 1991, Crimea automatically went with it. Things remained clam in Ukraine for two decades.

Unrest in Ukraine propelled during the presidency of Viktor Yanokovych who was seen as pro-Russia. His pro-Moscow policies led to civil unrest in Ukraine, and Yanokovych fled to Russia on February 22, 2014. In March, Russian troops took over Crimea, and increased its military presence there. Ukraine could do little before Russia’s military might, although Ukrainians were upset at Moscow’s expansionary tactics.

Russia under Putin, whose appetite was whetted by the Crimean takeover, now has bigger plans. Western analysts aver that the former KGB agent would want to increase Moscow’s influence in eastern European countries such as Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Georgia, and Ukraine. All these are former Soviet Union republics.

In Putin’s world view — formed by his time in the KGB — Russia’s standing in the international world order can only be improved by increasing its sphere of influence. Otherwise, it risks the chance of being relegated to a middle power. This is precisely what he is doing by targeting Ukraine.

Putin is more worried about Ukraine because it has free speech and a free press, and is, therefore, more prone to get influenced by the West. In fact Putin fears that the North American Treaty Organization (NATO) membership might be opened to Ukraine. Putin does not want this, and wants a formal halt to NATO’s eastern expansion, and seeks freezing of the alliance’s military infrastructure.

The current round of attacks between Russia and Ukraine might end soon, but this does not mean it is the end of the story. It’s going to be a long-drawn conflict with neither side willing to change their relative position.

Kingshuk Nag is an author and journalist. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.