Gujarat 2022 | BJP is comfortably placed, while Congress is in disarray

File photo (Image: AP)

The 2022 elections season is not yet over with the all-important Gujarat elections expected to be held towards the end of this calendar year. Gujarat, the home state for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, holds strategic importance for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), where it has its longest-serving government in power.

The BJP has been ruling the state uninterruptible since 1998. It’s the BJP’s strong fort, and in many ways its Hindutva laboratory. While Uttar Pradesh sends the maximum number of MPs, the BJP can’t afford any lapse in Gujarat, after the 2017 scare given by the Congress.

The BJP couldn’t touch the 100 mark amidst a fierce Patidar agitation led by Hardik Patel which tacitly backed the grand old party. The Congress finished with 77 seats, and 42.2 percent vote share with Surat region saving the day for the BJP despite the slogan “kamal ka phool hamari bhool” gaining popularity among the business community.

Patel is now in the Congress and the Patidar agitation has lost its steam. The BJP has calmed the nerves of the community by installing a Patel Chief Minister. Patels/Patidars are an influential voting block with 16 percent of state population. Traditional backers of the BJP, their votes were evenly split between the two national parties in 2017.

Anticipating backlash from voters amidst a brewing anti-incumbency, the BJP replaced and installed an entirely new Cabinet. The transition of power has been smooth with no major hiccups. The new team is expected to negate any voter disillusionment and boredom which creeps with such long tenure regimes.

Modi has visited the state twice in the recent past. Ultimately, the party is going to play up the Gujarati asmita card, and that both Modi and Shah are sons of the soil. Both leaders are popular despite unemployment, price rise, and a looming agri-crisis, as evidenced in the BJP winning four of the five state polls held a few months back.

The party looks comfortably placed, and in a better position than in 2017. The BJP’s main competitor, the Congress, is in disarray. It has still not recovered from the recent setback of Prashant Kishor refusing to join the party.

There is also no clarity over influential industrialist and Patidar leader Naresh Patel joining the Congress. Hardik Patel is wary of Naresh Patel’s entry, and has been getting jittery as shown by his tweets. He has also removed the mention of Congress from his Twitter handle, leading to speculations. Gujarat Congress President Jagdish Thakore, who was appointed in December, is yet to establish his authority over the state unit, especially over the many factions in the state unit.

The exodus of MLAs has also made the party weak, and rumour is that more are set to leave the grand old party. Elections are only a few months away but the Congress is far from being election ready. It is clear that the party is missing its master strategist Ahmad Patel, who passed away in 2020.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)’s aggressive and ambitious push in Gujarat, the Tiranga yatra, AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal’s frequent visits, have complicated matters for the Congress. After its victory in Punjab, AAP is targeting to occupy Congress’ space in states where the two national parties are in direct contest.

It hopes to woo voters who are anti-BJP, and do not believe in Congress’ ability to usher in change.

In the state, AAP’s foray could split votes, more so in urban pockets; and thus help the BJP. AAP bagged 6.8 percent and 3.3 percent vote share in Goa and Uttarakhand where the gap between the BJP and the Congress was 10 percent and 6.5 percent respectively.

The party is cornering much more media attention than the Congress. AAP has thrown the gauntlet of bheetri-bahari by accusing the BJP of installing a bahari (Maharashtrian) state President who ‘remote controls’ the government.

It has also sealed an alliance with the Bharatiya Tribal Party (BTP) of Chotu Vasava which has two MLAs in Gujarat. In 2017, the BTP was in alliance with the Congress..

The Schedule Tribes are a major vote bloc with 14.8 percent of the state’s population. They have traditionally backed the Congress more than the BJP.

AAP continues with its tried and tested formula of promising free electricity, education, and with the promise of eradicating corruption.

While the BJP has already hit the campaign trail, the Congress is a divided house, and AAP is keen to make the assembly elections a triangular contest.