Elections | How a weak JDU and RJD could change the Bihar’s electoral landscape

File image: JD(U) chief and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar

At least since its students’ movement of the mid-1970s, politics in Bihar has taken a turn every 15 years.

Thirty years after Lalu Prasad became Chief Minister in 1990, and 15-years after Nitish Kumar was sworn in for his first full-term as Chief Minister in 2005, there are signs Bihar could be on the cusp of a change.

With elections to its 243-member Assembly barely a month away, if there is a possibility of a leadership change at the helm of the state, there is also hope that the election results could sow the seeds for a more transformative politics.

If the election further accelerates the inexorable decline since 2005 of Bihar’s principal opposition party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), it could trigger a new phase of social engineering and political realignments.

On September 7, Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) chief Chirag Paswan said his party will contest 143 of the 243-seats in Bihar, including fielding candidates against Janata Dal (United) candidates, but not those of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The threat is bluster as Paswan’s party lacks the wherewithal to contest those many seats. However, it has prompted speculation that the JD(U)-BJP seat sharing formula is to be re-looked at.

It has also stirred fears in the Kumar-led JD(U) that the BJP could propose one of its own as the chief ministerial face if its tally were to significantly outstrip that of the JD(U).

The prospect of a leadership change in Bihar appeared fantastical at the beginning of the year. Kumar had then looked certain to lead the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to a comfortable win. However, the insensitive handling of the migrants’ crisis by the Bihar government, its poor record in providing MNREGA work and atrocities against Scheduled Castes — all of which affects JD(U)’s support base of Mahadalits, EBCs (extremely backward castes) and Muslims more than of the BJP’s — has dented Kumar’s popularity as ‘sushasan babu’.

As Kumar in his first virtual rally of this election campaign on September 7 reminded people of 15-years of ‘jungle raj’ of the “pati-patni sarkar” (of Lalu Prasad and Rabri Devi), it is unlikely the EBCs and Mahadalits would desert him in favour of the rudderless RJD. There are fears in the JD(U) that its upset support base might not turn up to vote.

The BJP’s support among upper castes remains intact. Its financial muscle, cadre strength, continuing popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and expertise in virtual campaign is expected to help it overcome any challenges that the spread of Coronavirus might pose.

This narrative that people are increasingly dissatisfied with Kumar’s government has strengthened those in BJP’s Bihar unit who want the seat sharing formula with the JD(U) renegotiated. Until now, the JD(U) contested 141 of the 243 seats, and the BJP the remaining 102.

A renegotiated seat sharing formula is in the works. The 50:50 formula of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls is the proposed template, but not before some shadow boxing. The BJP and the JD(U) have outsourced the sparring.

In the BJP’s corner is Chirag Paswan. His father, Union minister Ram Vilas Paswan is reportedly keeping unwell, and unlikely to continue in the Union Cabinet after July when he turns 75. Given this, Chirag Paswan’s political future depends on the BJP.

In the JD(U)’s corner is Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM)’s Jitan Ram Manjhi, a Mahadalit leader who recently returned to the NDA. Both Paswan and Manjhi would want maximum number of seats to contest to claim they are the real leader of the Dalits in Bihar, comprising 15 percent of its electorate.

In the process, the NDA’s image as the alliance that represents Dalit aspirations gets reinforced, while the RJD, and its allies, have no Dalit leaders of repute in their ranks. Shyam Rajak, who recently quit JD(U) to join RJD, has limited influence.

It is likely that the JD(U) and the BJP decide on sharing 120-odd seats each, and giving the HAM and the LJP seats from their respective shares. The HAM candidates could contest on the JD(U)’s symbol. On its part, the BJP is all set to replace dozens of its incumbent MLAs to beat local anti-incumbency.

The Congress and three Left parties, are allies of the RJD in this election. However, they are also keenly aware that an enfeebled RJD could turn out to be a blessing in disguise for their respective future politics in the state.

The RJD has lost its strength consistently since the February 2005 elections. Its performance in the 2015 elections, a seats tally of 80, was thanks to its alliance with the JD(U).

Significant sections of Yadavs have gravitated towards the BJP. Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership has been underwhelming. Jan Adhikar Party’s Pappu Yadav has worked tirelessly among migrants and will eat into the RJD’s support base on every seat. The BJP has made Union minister Nityanand Rai, a Yadav, the head of its 70-member steering committee for the elections.

Interestingly, CPI leader Kanhaiya Kumar, against whom the RJD had fielded a candidate in the Lok Sabha polls, will in all likelihood sit out the forthcoming contest if faced with a similar predicament.

The Bihar assembly elections could turn out to be more portentous than anticipated.

Archis Mohan is a Delhi-based senior journalist. Views are personal.