RBI is reportedly using machine learning tools to enhance its inflation forecasting, the bedrock of monetary policy decisions. The problem is larger, with data fed into GDP estimates dogged by shortcomings. There’s a strong case to invest more in the collection of primary data which drive policy decisions in public sector and investment decisions in private sector
Inverted customs duty structures have been one of the biggest impediments to competitiveness of Indian exporters. Imposed mostly ad-hoc, in response to specific demands for import protection, the duty inversions have adversely affected prospects. The Budget might have done for Indian exports what trade policy hasn’t been able to
The bond market has enough domestic demand for resilience
Oversight of regulatory institutions has not been bipartisan but controlled by the ruling administration
Food inflation, the villain in India’s inflation story, has finally begun to ease, although it is too early to say whether the decline is deceptive.
The target of Rs 78,000 crore of STT collection in Budget seems ambitious as the government assumes Nominal GDP growth of 10.1 percent for FY26.
The HDFC Securities Institutional Research team thinks that the budget is positive for consumer discretionary and staples, Automobiles, Real estate, Agriculture.
All in all, this budget is one of the best budgets presented. It will set a wave of positive ripples in the economy and will benefit many businesses, said Nimesh Chandan.
Trump may have a legitimate grievance in nudging the NATO countries to open their coffers for defence. In 2024, all NATO countries spent $1185 billion (estimated). Out of this, the US alone spent $755 billion. Trump’s call for raising defence budget amongst NATO partner countries may remain a ‘cherished dream’. At best, these countries may agree for more defence burden sharing in future conflict situations
When a larger share of the income pie goes to labour – rather than capital -- consumption will get a sustained boost, and complement the tax breaks given to the middle class. The former is structural, the latter a one-time measure. The budget made a reassuring beginning by focusing on labour-intensive sectors to boost employment
The Union Budget 2025-26 introduces significant reforms for India's insurance sector, including raising FDI limits, enhancing digital infrastructure, and expanding coverage for gig workers. These initiatives aim to drive innovation, growth, and greater accessibility, particularly in rural markets
Budget 2025 outlines efforts to boost manufacturing, focusing on renewable energy (RE) and cleantech. The National Manufacturing Mission aims to enhance domestic production across key sectors, reducing import dependency, and fostering innovation, technology, and skills for future growth.
US president’s trade offensive pushes producers to seek other markets as Beijing mulls retaliation options
The Budgetary measures will help reduce India’s dependence on imports and drive local manufacturing of batteries, thus making EVs more affordable
Trade facilitation and export promotion are long-term objectives of the government, while the budget largely skips short-term relief measures
Apart from China, US trade deficits with the EU, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, India and Taiwan are larger than with Canada. Will these countries be next in line for Trump tariffs?
If the RBI cuts rates then overseas investors may find yields on bonds significantly less attractive due to higher taxes, lower coupon rates and the currency risk
Tariffs have often been viewed and used as tools to build domestic industrial strength. In displaying faith in them, Donald Trump is not an outlier in American political history. The question is whether tariffs are an unstoppable force or just another page in the economics textbooks. The next four years will answer that question for the U.S. and for the world at large.
The share of passenger train business in total revenues is expected to rise to the highest levels in two decades
Amid tariffs, the RBI will need to choose a battle it can win: either exchange rate or domestic inflation
This month the Supreme Court will hear a matter examining the scope of Article 141 of the Constitution which says that the law declared by the apex court shall be binding on all courts. The underlying issue centers on a test of legitimacy of legislative power or the Supreme Court’s power under Article 141.
Key budget announcements like support for gig workers, global capacity centres, and startups will unleash entrepreneurial talent. The Finance Minister’s fiscal discipline is praiseworthy, as India moves towards private sector-driven growth.
Sanghnomics: India is developing its own generative AI model, set for release in 2025. The Economic Survey highlights potential job losses due to AI, particularly in service sectors. Regulatory frameworks are evolving, but ensuring timely legislation remains a significant challenge
Budget does well on transparency, diluting intrusiveness in taxation, fiscal prudence and laying down a roadmap for more consolidation. It could have been more ambitious in its goals but the global uncertainty triggered by US policy could have nudged the government to err on the side of caution
And weak sales of big-ticket items
