Will India, China defence ministers’ meeting lead to a thaw in border row?

On April 23, ahead of the defence ministers’ meeting, senior Indian and Chinese military officials held another round of talks to defuse the situation in eastern Ladakh.

Chinese defence minister Li Shangfu and his Indian counterpart and host, Rajnath Singh, are likely to look for an early resolution to the military stand-off between the two sides at their border since May 2020, when they meet in Delhi this week.

Li is coming to India to attend the two-day defence ministers’ meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) that begins on April 27. He is likely to meet Singh on that day itself.

On April 23, ahead of the defence ministers’ meeting, senior Indian and Chinese military officials held another round of talks to defuse the situation in eastern Ladakh.

There were reports that the Indian side pressed strongly for troop disengagement at the Depsang Bulge area and Charding Ninglung Nallah.

Though the talks, which began in the morning, continued till late night, there were no indications of their outcome yet.

This will be the Chinese defence minister’s first visit to India since the border stand-off between the two sides began nearly four years ago.

Li also comes to India when there is renewed tension in the Taiwan Strait in the wake of a meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and the US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Washington earlier this month.

The meeting led to three days of coercive military exercises by China across Taiwan and the longest joint military drills by the United States and its treaty ally, the Philippines, in the South China Sea, leading to unprecedented tension in the region.

On April 27, Singh will also have a separate bilateral meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu, who will also be visiting Delhi for the first time since the war in Ukraine began in February 2021.

Pakistan's defence minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif will attend the SCO meeting virtually.

SCO defence ministers’ meeting

The SCO defence ministers’ meeting is scheduled for April 28. Defence ministers of all eight member-countries, including four from Central Asia, are likely to attend the meeting in Delhi.

India, China, Russia, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are the eight members.

Li’s visit to New Delhi comes at a time when the border row between India and China in eastern Ladakh is set to enter its fourth year in early May.

India-China standoff

Despite four rounds of disengagement from Galwan Valley, Pangong Tso, Gogra (PP-17A) and Hot Springs (PP-15), the Indian and Chinese armies still have more than 60,000 troops each and advanced weaponry deployed in the Ladakh theatre.

The two armies have held several rounds of talks, but problems at Depsang in Daulet Beg Oldi sector and Charding Nullah Junction (CNJ) in Demchok sector are still on the negotiating table.

News agencies quoted Singh as expressing confidence in the Indian Army to handle any contingency along the border with China.

Though he maintained that talks would continue for a peaceful resolution of the lingering row in the Ladakh sector, disengagement and de-escalation were the best way forward.

China's foreign minister Qin Gang had visited India earlier this year for the G-20 foreign ministers' meeting.

Soon after his visit, China renamed multiple places in Arunachal Pradesh to assert its claims to the region, which it claims as part of 'south Tibet'.

Troops from the two sides had clashed in the Tawang region of Arunachal in December last year.

These issues are likely to be raised during Singh’s meeting with Li as the two sides try to ensure that tension does not escalate in the border area and for an early resolution of the situation there.

Currently, China seems to be more focused on the Taiwan issue. It thinks the US is deliberately keeping the Taiwan issue on the boil to unsettle Beijing.

But a number of countries in the region that have maritime disputes with China, like the Philippines, are concerned about China’s assertive rise in the region.

The Chinese foreign minister had recently led a delegation to Manila to remove strains in the bilateral relations with the Philippines.

The Chinese side assured the Philippines that all outstanding issues could be settled through peaceful dialogue between the two sides.

The renewed tension over Taiwan and in the South China Sea might lead China to ensure that its border standoff with India does not deteriorate further.

Significantly, the meeting between Singh and the Russian defence minister comes at a time when there are concerns in certain sections that a wide range of sanctions have posed new challenges and complicated the India-Russia defence partnership.

Russia is India’s largest supplier of military hardware and spares and accounts for nearly 50 percent of India’s weapons despite Delhi’s efforts in recent years to diversify its procurement from a number of countries.

Shoigu is likely to share with his Indian counterpart Russia's assessment of the ongoing Ukraine war and assure Singh that despite the American and western sanctions, the Technical Defense Partnership between the countries remain robust.