
As hostilities intensify between Iran and the United States and Israel, fears are growing over potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has stated that the Strait of Hormuz is closed exclusively to vessels from the United States, Israel, Europe and their Western allies.
However, India may be left with restricted alternatives if the disruption persists. Although only around 50 km wide at its narrowest point, the Strait of Hormuz handles a significant portion of global energy trade.
According to reports, nearly half of India’s crude oil imports—about 2.5–2.7 million barrels per day—move through the Strait of Hormuz, mainly coming from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.
In that case, if the disruption drags on, the Indian government may have few alternatives to mitigate a possible energy shortage.
Russian crude
For India, one of the most immediate buffers lies in Russian crude already at sea. According to analytics platform Kpler, Russian crude and petroleum product volumes on water were estimated at about 152 million barrels in mid-February.
However, Navin Thakur, director at Drewry Maritime Research, a maritime consultancy, told The Print that the US sanctions add complexity to such decisions.
“India cannot openly go overboard and import Russian oil. There will be some conditions that need to be fulfilled and it entirely depends on the Indian leadership,” Thakur said.
US help
The United States, along with Brazil, Colombia, Guyana and Venezuela, can supply crude that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz entirely, offering an alternative source of imports for India.
However, this diversification comes at a cost. According to The Print, shipments from the US to Indian ports involve significantly longer voyages—often 25–45 days compared with about a week from Gulf suppliers—resulting in higher freight charges and more complex supply chains.
African scenario
In West Africa, Nigeria and Angola, offer another alternative source of crude. India has been importing regularly from the region through the Atlantic Basin over the past year.
According to data from Kpler, India imported about 254 thousand barrels per day (kbpd) from Angola and 142 kbpd from Nigeria in January 2026.
However, Thakur told The Print while West African crude may be slightly cheaper than supplies from the United States or Latin America due to shorter distances, the route still carries risks because of attacks by Houthi movement in the region.
Short-term response
According to Thakur, another short-term response could involve fuel substitution and demand management. Industrial consumption of crude oil and natural gas may be temporarily replaced with coal or other energy sources to ease pressure on supplies.
He said India uses a considerable amount of LPG and natural gas in power generation, which could be substituted with coal if required.
Thakur added that the government typically prepares a priority allocation plan during supply disruptions, ensuring critical sectors continue to receive energy while consumption in less essential sectors may be reduced.
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