MC Daily Monsoon Tracker: Rainfall surplus slips below 4% for the first time in 17 days

Raiinfall surplus narrows below 4 percent

India’s monsoon rainfall surplus further fell to below 4 percent as of August 18, as 20 states received deficient rain on the day, data released by India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows.

The surplus declined to 3.83 percent, falling for a seventh consecutive day, from 6.33 percent last week and 4.31 percent on August 17.

The surplus is at its lowest in 17 days, as states such as Manipur and Punjab continued to face over 30 percent deficit. Six others, too, remain rain deficient.

The water levels of reservoirs, however, remain comfortably above normal, as rainfall stayed in the positive territory compared to the long-period average, data released by the Central Water Commission said.

The water level of the country’s 150 reservoirs was 14 percent above normal, with the southern region up 31 percent.

Northern and eastern regions, which continue to reel under deficient rainfall, had lower storage levels.

In the north, reservoir levels were nearly a third below normal, whereas in the east three out of seven states had deficient capacity.

In farm state of Punjab, storage was 69 percent below normal. In Bihar, the capacity was 32 percent below normal.

Kharif sowing was just 1.4 percent higher at 98 million hectares despite surplus rain for more than three weeks.

Paddy sowing was up 4.3 percent at 33.2 million hectares and pulses 6.7 percent. On the other hand, jute and cotton sowing was down around 9 percent as of August 12.

“On the sowing front, kharif progress is satisfactory for all crops except cotton and jute which is lower. In case of sugarcane, it is on par with last year. As there are still over two weeks to go, there is scope for catch-up,” said Sonal Badhan, economist, Bank of Baroda, referring to monsoon rains.

The government is hoping for a revival of the agricultural sector, which grew just 1.4 percent in FY24 against 4.7 percent in the previous year. The growth was also lower than the 3.7 percent long-term average.