Ludhiana West byelection: Advantage AAP as Congress struggles to fix internal challenges

Voting for the Ludhiana West by-election will be held on June 19 and the results will be declared on June 23.

The campaign for the Ludhiana West by-election on Thursday ended Tuesday evening with the fate of key candidates from the Aam Aadmi Party, Congress, Shiromani Akali Dal and the Bharatiya Janata Party in the hands of the 1.74 lakh-strong electorate.

The ruling AAP has fielded incumbent Rajya Sabha MP and local industrialist Sanjeev Arora, 61, from the seat which fell vacant following the demise of AAP MLA Gurpreet Bassi Gogi in January this year. Up against Arora are Bharat Bhushan Ashu from Congress, Jiwan Gupta from the BJP and Parupkar Singh Ghumman from the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD).

The bypoll is being seen as a litmus test for the ruling AAP which is desperate to preserve its dominance in Punjab ahead of the Assembly elections scheduled to be held in the state in 2027. Punjab also happens to be the last remaining bastion of the AAP following its defeat in Delhi earlier this year.

The AAP's campaign for a victory from the seat, which is being speculated as key to the party's national convener Arvind Kejriwal's entry to the Rajya Sabha, was marked by an early start and the overwhelming presence of the party's top brass.

Besides Kejriwal, top party leaders like Manish Sisodia and Punjab CM Bhagwant Mann have been camping in Ludhiana in a clear sign of the importance the party has attached to the constituency. The party, which designed its campaign around the 'Kejriwal vision' of development, is confident of a victory.

Beyond the optics, AAP derives much of this confidence from its primary adversary -- the Congress. Far from the need for the party to put up a tough fight ahead of the Punjab elections next year, the party's campaign has been ridden by factionalism and a very public display of internal bickering -- an issue that the AAP managed to turn into a narrative in the run-up to the polls.

Unlike the AAP, the Congress' campaign was marked by the public display of a strained relationship between PCC president Amarinder Singh Raja Warring and the candidate Bharat Bhushan Ashu. The absence of key state leaders from the campaign, and the public perception of disunity only weakened the party’s coordination, messaging, and worker morale.

The outcome of the intra-party rivalry now threatens to deprive the Congress of a victory in this key urban seat which it has held six times in the past 40 years. Its candidate Ashu also won the seat in 2012 and 2017 and was given a ticket with a hope to capitalize on his local influence and past developmental record.

Still, the Congress has somehow managed to turn the by-election into a show of disunity with the strained ties between Ashu and Warring grabbing the limelight.

Sample these:

- On May 29, Ashu was absent from a key strategy meeting organised by Warring in Ludhiana East aimed at mobilising party workers for his own candidacy.

- Multiple reports suggested that all through the campaign, Warring barely mentioned Ashu in any of his speeches.

- On June 16, Congress' campaign in-charge Rana Gurjeet Singh maintained distance from Warring, and Partap Singh Bajwa, the Leader of Opposition, and even attempted to leave abruptly before being persuaded to stay during a press conference held by Congress general secretary in charge of Punjab, Bhupesh Baghel.

- On June 17, the last day of campaigning, Warring and Bajwa remained absent from the roadshow held by Ashu to mark the end his campaign.

- Several prominent Punjab Congress leaders, including Warring, Ludhiana district Congress chief Sanjay Talwar, and Bajwa, were notably absent from Ashu’s campaign materials, such as posters, billboards, and social media graphics.

The internal differences have allowed rival parties to mock the lack of communication between Ashu and Warring. "What can be expected from a party where the state president and the candidate do not speak to each other?" Punjab Cabinet Minister Aman Arora said.

BJP's Punjab chief Sunil Jakhar also said differences within the Punjab Congress would severely dent the party prospects not just in Ludhiana West but would also have repercussions in the 2027 polls.

"More than half of the Punjab Congress is itself trying to defeat their candidate Bharat Bhushan Ashu… Whether it’s Leader of the Opposition Partap Singh Bajwa or their state president Amrinder Singh Raja Warring, they all want Ashu to lose. They are not even showing their faces in Ludhiana West… Ashu is not even on talking terms with them. Once Ashu loses this bypoll, the Punjab Congress will be totally disintegrated," he told The Indian Express.

Polling for the Ludhiana West seat will take place from 7am to 6pm on June 19, and the results will be declared on June 23. Authorities have set up 194 polling stations, with live webcasting planned at every station to ensure transparency during the process.