How BJP flipped the script after Lok Sabha polls: 5 factors that powered a dream comeback

BJP has alone crossed 100 seats in Maharashtra and is set to beat the entire tally of Maha Vikas Aghadi.

The BJP-led Mahayuti in Maharashtra  won 230 of the 288 seats in the 288-member assembly. The BJP, which is the big brother in the alliance that also comprises Shiv Sena and NCP, has alone won 132 seats in the state and is set to beat the entire tally of Maha Vikas Aghadi.

The results from Maharashtra are a solid vote of confidence for the ruling Mahayuti, which looked down and out after the recent Lok Sabha elections when the MVA (Congress, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar's NCP) stole the march and cornered a majority of the seats.

In Uttar Pradesh too, BJP-led Mahayuti won 7 out of 9 seats in the bypolls, recovering strongly from the debacle of the Lok Sabha election.

As far as the national political picture is concerned, the results have given a comeback tune to the BJP, which is capping off 2024 on a winning note just months after it appeared that the voters had read the riot act to the saffron party with the Lok Sabha verdict.

In the general election earlier this year, BJP faced a reality check after losing a chunk of seats in the lower house. It failed to secure a Lok Sabha majority and banked on allies to form its third government at the Centre.

The results can be examined from multiple perspectives, but BJP’s internal assessment attributes the downturn to these factors: a consolidation of Dalit and OBC votes against the saffron party, mismanagement in Uttar Pradesh, a spirited performance by the opposition INDIA bloc, and poor candidate selection.

Taking lessons from its Lok Sabha performance, the saffron party made a determined effort to reverse the losses in the subsequent assembly polls, especially in Haryana. This also meant corrective steps to counter caste and religious polarisation which took place in Lok Sabha polls.

In Haryana, BJP's social engineering effort helped the party script a hat-trick in the state. It posted its best-ever performance and defied the expectations of all pollsters.

In most ways, BJP replicated the winning combinations from the Haryana polls in Maharashtra and is now reaping rich dividends.

BJP's non-Maratha consolidation strategy in Maharashtra mirrored its non-Jat consolidation in Haryana.

Union minister Bhupendra Yadav and other key leaders in the state planned a strategic OBC reachout in the state. The party deployed the MaDhVa formula in the state - short for Mali (gardener), Dhangar (shepherd) and Vanjari, to woo the community after a polarising Maratha reservation agitation. As per current trends, the party is on course to winning 17 seats in the Marathwadi region.

OBCs make up nearly 38% of the state's population and hold sway in nearly 175 of the 288 seats.

The party's Haryana campaign was propelled by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) whose cadre worked actively on the ground, ensuring the last-mile push for BJP among Hindus, non-Jat and Dalit voters.

In Maharashtra too, there was a strong push by RSS for BJP. The Sangh's active involvement in the elections came months after the BJP's Lok Sabha debacle in the north. There were reports of a lackluster and unmotivated response from RSS during the general election.

Since then, the twain has met again and how. The Sangh pulled out all the stops to campaign for BJP in the Maharashtra polls (just like in Haryana). An older report by The Indian Express said that RSs workers went door to door and urged voters to support the ruling Mahayuti alliance.

Senior RSS functionaries told CNN-News18 that the ‘Sajag Raho’ campaign - a personalised door to door outreach programme - went a long way in uniting the Hindu voters despite caste faultlines.

In Uttar Pradesh bypolls, RSS actively backed chief minister Yogi Adityanath, helping the party bounce back from its Lok Sabha drubbing. RSS general secretary Dattatreya Hosabale even endorsed Yogi Adityanath's ‘batenge toh katenge’ slogan, saying that call for Hindu unity is a lifetime pledge of the Sangh.

The elections in both Maharashtra and Haryana saw a polarised campaign, with BJP leaders actively pursuing a hardline Hindutva approach. Slogans such as "batenge to katenge" and its softer version - "ek hai to safe hai", struck a chord with BJP's core vote base and helped it upend the opposition efforts of consolidating Muslims, Dalits and Kunbis.

The party also deployed multiple outreach programmes to either assauge or woo key voter groups. In Haryana, the Nayab Singh Saini government offered sops for the Agniveers and announced MSP for 10 crops to quell anger among the farmers.

In Maharashtra, the party immediately adopted Madhya Pradesh's Ladli Behna scheme (Ladki Bahin scheme) after the Lok Sabha polls to woo women voters. The "game-changer" Ladki Bahin scheme benefits over 2.3 crore women in the state.

The Mahayuti government also announced incentives to appease farmers, such as offering free electricity for agricultural pumps up to 7.5 HP, vowing a crop loan waiver and promising reimbursement of MSP-procurement rate gaps under the Bhavantar Yojana.