BMC elections: How failed Thackeray reunion may have dented Uddhav's chances more than Raj's

Uddhav Thackeray and Raj Thackeray

• BJP-led Mahayuti wins decisive victory in BMC polls, defeating Thackeray cousins
• Thackeray cousins' reunion failed to consolidate Marathi votes as hoped
• Voters favored governance and welfare over pure identity politics in Mumbai

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One of the many highlights in the lead-up to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) polls, was the reunion of the Thackeray cousins after more than 20years , an alliance which many considered as the last role of the dice, especially for Uddhav Thackeray, whose party was split following Eknath Shinde's rebellion.

But as the election outcome for India’s richest local corporation trickled in -- by early evening, suggesting a decisive victory for the Bharaitya Janata Pary (BJP)-led Mahayuti, questions began to be raised whether the much-publicised reunion -- meant to consolidate the Marathi vote and reclaim the legacy of Bal Thackeray - Uddhav's father and Raj's uncle - from his aide Eknath Shinde, did have any impact at all and if Uddhav's Sena would have performed better if it did enter into an union with Raj Thackeray's MNS.

The outcome also reflects that pure identity politics no longer wins Mumbai. The idea that Marathi identity alone could consolidate votes fell flat, particularly when framed against outsiders and migrants who form the backbone of the city.

The Thackerays-- Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray’s MNS aggressively tried to push a “Marathi Manoos” narrative, arguing that Marathi-speaking citizens were being sidelined in their own city by outsiders, with BJP-led governments complicit in this “takeover.”

Added to their aggressive nativist pitch, Uddhav Thackeray’s Sena made a clear pivot toward Muslim consolidation, which helped win some seats. But this came at a cost: it failed to energise traditional Sena voters, exposing the limits of the strategy.

Undoubtely, identity still matters in a state like Maharashtra and a city like Mumbai, but it isn’t enough to clinch the outcome purely on its own. Voters were willing to look beyond nativism when presented with a credible promise of governance, development and inclusion. BJP’s ability to combine a “Marathi and Hindu” pitch with a broader welfare narrative proved decisive.

For Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT), this election was about defending its last bastion. Today's outcome has made it clear, however, that the coming together of the Thackerays did not work, and that may have largely been down to one cousin.

The undivided Shiv Sena had won 84 out of 227 wards in the BMC in 2017, where the majority mark is 114, and the Shiv Sena (UBT) is, as of 6 pm, leading in 73, second only to the BJP's 88. Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, on the other hand, is leading only in 10. The Shiv Sena (UBT) contested 160 seats, meaning its strike rate is set to be over 45%, while the MNS fought 53, leaving it with a win percentage of just 19.

With the outcome clearly reflecting that the mandate was not in favour of Thackeray cousins, speculations grew that despite a transfer of votes from the MNS to his party, Uddhav Thackeray would probably have been better off contesting on his own or with the Congress, which has won 11 wards but enjoys more support among non-Maharashtrians.