Ajit Pawar's untimely death: What's next for his NCP faction?

Maharashtra deputy chief minister and NCP leader Ajit Pawar passed away on Wednesday after his plane crashed on way to Baramati. He was 66.

Ajit Pawar was one of the most influential leaders of Maharashtra who served as the deputy chief minister a record six times across different governments.

The junior Pawar had split away from his uncle Sharad Pawar's faction in 2023 and joined hands with the NDA government. The rebellion caused a vertical split in the NCP, founded by Sharad Pawar in 1999, dividing voter loyalities in the state.

Ajit Pawar also positioned his faction as the real NCP and managed to secure the party's name and clock symbol via Election Commission rulings in 2024 after long legal battles.

However, the jury was still out on whether voters truly accepted Ajit Pawar’s faction as the “real” NCP. The party’s electoral record since the split has been mixed. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Ajit Pawar-led group delivered a dismal performance, winning just one seat.

It clawed back momentum in the subsequent Assembly polls, securing 41 seats and dealing a major blow to Sharad Pawar’s NCP (SP). More recently, the two factions joined hands for the Maharashtra civic polls earlier this month, but the alliance struggled as it suffered a drubbing in the party’s traditional pockets of Pimpri-Chinchwad and Pune.

Notably, the coming together of the two NCP factions for the Maharashtra civic polls triggered speculations of a possible merger between the uncle and nephew.

Only recently, NCP leader Sunil Tatkare said that NCP may hold merger talks with NCP (SP) but will remain with the NDA in the state. Earlier too, Ajit Pawar had indicated that the two factions will form an alliance "wherever possible", suggesting that the doors were always open for a reunion in the future.

Last week, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut had also expressed hope that Ajit Pawar will merge his faction with Sharad Pawar.

However, the untimely death of Ajit Pawar will now upend the political equations in the state. Several MLAs, MPs and MLCs who chose to back his rebellion and shift to his camp now face an uncertain future in the absence of their central figurehead.

Without Ajit Pawar’s authority and negotiating clout, questions loom over whether these legislators will stay together, seek a new leader or attempt a return to the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP).

Moreover, it also brings into the question the fate of the broader NDA in Maharashtra, which includes Ajit Pawar's faction. While Ajit loyalists would want to remain in NDA, there will be political pressure to return to the Sharad Pawar's fold without a clear succession line within NCP.

Ajit is survived by his two sons, Parth and Jay and wife, Sunetra. Parth contested the 2019 Lok Sabha elections from Maval constituency on an NCP ticket but lost to Shrirang Barne of Shiv Sena.

Though he remains involved in family political activities, he is not an influential party leader. Jay, on the other hand, is not part of active politics and focuses on business activities.

His wife, Sunetra, is a Rajya Sabha member and a formidable political strategist. She unsuccessfully contested the Lok Sabha polls from Baramati, losing to NCP (SP) leader and Sharad Pawar's daughter, Supriya Sule.

While the spotlight will now fall on Sunetra and Parth to carry forward Ajit Pawar’s legacy within his NCP faction, it will be difficult to ignore the towering shadow of Sharad Pawar — a presence his nephew spent much of his political career striving to step out from.