A deal 20 years in the making: Goldman Sachs says India-EU FTA rewires trade, sector winners emerge fast

The report highlights the scale of the pact, and said India and the EU together account for "~2bn people, ~25% of global GDP, and around one quarter of the world's population and trade."

• India-EU FTA to cut tariffs on 96.6% of EU goods, saving exporters ~EUR4bn yearly
• EU autos, chemicals, and machinery to benefit most from reduced Indian tariffs
• Macroeconomic impact limited short term, but sector-level gains expected

Did our AI summary help?

The long-awaited India-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA), will mark a major shift in global trade realignment amid rising protectionism, according to a Goldman Sachs report.

The report highlights the scale of the pact, and said India and the EU together account for "~2bn people, ~25% of global GDP, and around one quarter of the world's population and trade."

However, the report cautioned that the macroeconomic impact is likely to remain limited in the near term. According to the note, even a fully-fledged set of new EU trade agreements would raise EU gross exports by "Our economists also emphasise that while this FTA accelerates an already deep relationship, Europe's overall export performance remains constrained by rising global protectionism, heightened Chinese competition, and persistently high US tariffs," noted the report

Despite this, the agreement is expected to deliver meaningful benefits at the sector level.

Goldman Sachs said India will eliminate or reduce tariffs on 96.6% of EU goods exports to India, generating estimated savings of ~EUR4bn per year for EU exporters.

It says "India will eliminate or sharply reduce tariffs on 96.6% of EU goods exports -- particularly autos, machinery, chemicals and aerospace -- unlocking real opportunities in the most tariff-constrained sectors."

The report added that tariffs will fall sharply across key sectors, with duties dropping to zero over time for "machinery, medical equipment, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, plastics and aerospace", while "auto tariffs will drop from 110% to 10% under a quota of 250,000 vehicles"

On market impact, Goldman Sachs said "industrials are the main beneficiaries", noting that "the largest short-term beneficiaries are likely to be EU autos, chemicals and electrical machinery"

The report also pointed to India's strong structural growth outlook, stating that its economists expect "India's real GDP growth at 6.7% in 2026 and 6.8% in 2027, above consensus"

Against this backdrop, European companies with India exposure are gaining investor attention. Goldman Sachs said its basket of European firms exposed to India is the best performing basket year to date, adding that these companies "offer the same top-line growth as the market but are on a 7% discount"

The agreement, the report notes, underscores a broader strategic shift, as diversification has become the dominant strategic objective in a fragmenting global trading system.