Weekend Wild Card: The intelligent investor’s guide to apocalyptic alpha

Weekend Wild Card

Dear Investor,

Sure, I get it that you’re concerned. And you’re right, what with geopolitics, Cold Wars, hot wars, tariffs, deglobalisation, climate change, tech disruption, slowing growth, unemployment and so on.

But you know what, there are a hundred big fat silver linings that will put your mind at rest. Take war, I mean it’s a huge opportunity, right, to buy defence stocks. Especially when we're going all indigenous, we call that reshoring defence alpha. And it’s a double-engine opportunity—when the war’s over, think of the post-conflict capex that will fuel industrial stocks. War, rebuilding, war, rebuilding—it’s an infinite CAGR loop.

Trump’s tariffs? Rotate from export-oriented to domestic-oriented stocks. That’s creating upside convexity through synthetically uncorrelated assets. What’s more, neutral India will attract capital fleeing both sides in the Cold War. It’s win-win. Think of the opportunity for national champions when supply chains are broken, of China + Geo-Strategic opportunities with multi-polar supply chain architecture. Best of all, duplicate supply chains will mean 2x capex boom. Wow! Just wow!

Yes, I know growth will slow. But think of the upside—low oil prices, low input costs, fat margins for corporates. A GDP fall will immediately trigger dovish central bank pivots. Expect rate cuts and QE bazookas to ignite risk-on rallies. What’s not to like?

Worried about the uncertainty? Companies holding back from investment? That’s investor-friendly, what will they do with all that cash? Why, buybacks and dividends of course, it’s capex cancellation alpha. What’s the point of building factories when you can build EPS? Markets love uncertainty—it’s a catalyst for safe-haven assets and defensive stocks. We call it low-beta outperformance. Also, don’t forget the shiny metals. The cloud lining could be silver, or gold, or even platinum.

Global warming? Two words: hill stations. Think tourism, think travel, diversify into hotels in the hills. And let’s not forget about Green Transition Stocks. Glaciers melt? ESG funds boom. Trump kills green policies? Bet on oil and EVs—optionality wins!

You may have read the recent survey that found middle-school kids couldn’t do basic reading, writing and maths. Did it not immediately suggest a bright future for edtech companies?

Yes, tech disruption is assured. But we all know the productivity gains from AI. Think of the upside from all that AI disinformation---fake news drives engagement, engagement drives ad revenue. And cyberattacks? Cybersecurity stocks will rally.

Incidentally, just letting you know we now offer our own predictive quantum infused insight AI engine.

AI will drive lower cost, including manpower cost. Jobs down, profits up. More gig workers = lower wage bills= earnings surge. Who needs consumers when you have cost-cutting?

Will that affect consumption demand? Don’t forget that lower growth will mean lower inflation. Lower prices boost consumer spending, lifting retail and discretionary stocks. Deflation=Future Demand.

Worried about the impact on real estate because no one can afford a house? Great, now they will all rent. REITs will explode. Think that all this will lead to social unrest? Well, have you considered the massive increase in business of surveillance drone makers?

Ok, assume the worst, assume quarterly earnings misses. What happens? Companies slash guidance, so the misses are just setups for future beats. We call them orchestrated beatings.

Valuations? Surely a savvy investor like you knows that expensive=exclusive, that high P/E multiples reflect unstoppable investor confidence.

A nuclear war? Yes, that could well happen, given geopolitical tensions. But amid the fallout lies opportunity. With major production centres vaporised, surviving corporates will face unprecedented market share gains, huge pricing leverage. And think of the rebuilding that will follow, the opportunities for steel, cement, construction equipment. We would advise you to stay long.

If total societal collapse happens, Mad Max style? That’ll be a great window of opportunity for private military contractors’ IPOs.

Ah, I see you’re convinced of the rosy future. You’re willing to invest then? What’s that you said? An index fund? Come on, that’s not investing, it’s sloth. An investor of your calibre, with our help of course, is not here to average, you’re here to dominate. And we’re offering you a metamarket dominance protocol. Are you seriously telling me you prefer an index fund? Frankly, it’s embarrassing—for you, for us, for capitalism.

Regards,

CEO, Financial Opportunity Monetization Optimizer (FOMO)

(Disclaimer: Rosy Future may contain radioactive fallout)