Technical View: Crossing weekly high crucial for bulls to drive Nifty beyond 50-day EMA going ahead

Nifty Outlook for August 18

The Nifty 50 continued its northward journey for another session amid choppy movement, closing moderately higher on August 14, the weekly F&O expiry day. Overall, it was a rangebound trading session as the market appeared cautious ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting scheduled for August 15.

The index sustained above the 100-day EMA (24,590) but could not surpass Tuesday's high or the weekly high of 24,700 — a crucial level for any upward move toward 24,800 (50-day EMA), followed by the 24,950–25,000 zone. However, the level of 24,465 is expected to act as immediate support, followed by a crucial support zone around 24,300, according to experts.

After opening lower at 24,607, the Nifty 50 traded within a narrow 70-point range throughout the session. It finished at 24,631, up 12 points, forming a small green candle with an upper shadow on the daily charts, indicating rangebound action with some selling pressure at higher levels.

On the weekly chart, the index snapped a six-week losing streak and closed 1.1 percent higher, forming a bullish candle, which is a positive sign.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, a sustainable upmove above the 24,700 hurdle could open the door for further upside toward the 25,000 mark in the near term.

The placement of cluster supports around the 24,300–24,200 levels could offer strong support in case of any weakness, he noted.

Weekly options data suggests that the broader trading range for the Nifty 50 is expected to remain between 24,000 and 25,000, with the immediate range seen at 24,500–24,800.

The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 25,000 strike, followed by the 24,700 and 24,800 strikes, with maximum Call writing also concentrated at these levels.

On the Put side, the 24,000 strike holds the highest open interest, followed by the 24,600 and 24,500 strikes, with significant Put writing at these levels as well.

The market will remain shut on August 15 in observance of Independence Day.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty outperformed the benchmark Nifty 50, rising 160 points to end at 55,342, holding above the 100-day EMA for the sixth consecutive session. The index formed a bullish candle but remained within last Friday's trading range for the fourth straight session, indicating a lack of momentum and low volatility.

On the weekly timeframe, the index rebounded after a couple of weeks of losses, rising 0.61 percent and forming a bullish candle. It also managed to close above the 20-week EMA of 54,930 for another week.

According to Sudeep Shah, Head - Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities, the key support for Bank Nifty is placed at 54,900–54,850. A breach below this zone could open the door toward 54,050–54,100. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at 55,650–55,700.

He further added that while both the Nifty and Bank Nifty have held above their respective 100-day EMAs, the underlying structure has not improved significantly. The future cues will depend on the direction in which the price breaks out from the current consolidation range.

Meanwhile, the India VIX maintained its uptrend for the third consecutive week, rising 2.68 percent to 12.36, indicating some caution among the bulls.

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