Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Emami
HMN reported a growth of ~9.8%/9% in sales/volumes on strong winters, and normalization of channel inventory post GST led to disruption. Near-term outlook remains optimistic given 1) Healthy demand outlook for Q4 led by prolonged winters 2) Revival in rural demand with focus on small SKUs in shampoos and skin creams and 3) initial gains form revamp and relaunch of Kesh King, with a new proposition, packaging and formulation. Although prolonged winter might delay summer portfolio loading, overall revival in demand augurs will in coming quarters, sans seasonal and climatic variations. We have cut EPS estimates for FY27/FY28 by 4.4%/4.1% as we anticipate overall tax rate to increase to 18.3/20% in FY27/28.
Outlook
We estimate a sales/EBIDTA/EPS CAGR of 8.4/9.7/7.7% over FY26–28. We value the stock at 27x Dec’27 EPS, assigning target price of Rs571 (Rs582 earlier). Maintain Accumulate.
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