Rupee’s over 1% intraday rally: A move seen just 10 times since 2014

Indian Rupee

• Rupee surged 1.48 percent on Feb 3, 2026, third-strongest gain since 2014
• US-India trade deal cut tariffs to 18 percent, boosting investor optimism
• India to halt Russian oil imports, boost purchases from US and possibly Venezuela

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The Indian rupee’s sharp intraday rise of nearly 1.5 percent on February 3, 2026 places the currency among a rare set of sessions, with data showing that such gains have occurred only 10 times in the past 12 years.

The latest move ranks as the third-strongest intraday gain since 2014, underscoring the exceptional nature of the rally in the foreign exchange market.

Today’s rally in the currency market was witnessed after a late-night trade deal announced by both Prime Minister Narendra Modi and United States President Donald Trump ignited investor optimism and spurred foreign inflows.

US President Donald Trump on February 2 announced a trade deal with India that includes a significant reduction in reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods, lowering the rate from 25 percent to 18 percent, following a phone conversation with PM Modi.

Furthermore, Prime Minister Modi agreed that India would stop buying Russian oil and instead increase purchases from the United States and potentially Venezuela.

“The trade tariffs were reduced to 18% a tad lower than what it is for our neighbors, giving our exporters a relative advantage,” analysts at Finrex Treasury Advisors said. “FPIs may finally buy Indian equities after being sellers for such a long time. We need to wait and see the RBI stance today and in the coming days,” they added.

Historically, the rupee’s biggest intraday appreciation was recorded on December 18, 2018, when it surged 1.62 percent, followed by a 1.51 percent jump on November 11, 2022, according to the Bloomberg data.

The February 3, 2026 rally of 1.48 percent now joins this list, surpassing several other notable episodes including November 2, 2018 (1.40 percent) and May 20, 2019 (1.29 percent).

Other large single-day moves were largely concentrated around periods of heightened global volatility, such as March 2020, when pandemic-driven market dislocations triggered sharp currency swings.

“The recent trade agreement and tariff reduction to 18% open the door for modest appreciation, but the pace and extent will depend on RBI intervention thresholds, given the priority of maintaining export competitiveness. Foreign inflows may improve at the margin, though a sharp shift is unlikely as global investors remain focused on AI, quantum, memory, and data-center themes,” said Anindya Banerjee, Head Currency and Commodity Research at Kotak Securities.

Currency experts believe that the local currency is expected to remain in the range of 89-91 range against the US dollar.