Renewable energy to have 57% share in India’s installed capacity by 2030: Crisil

India is on path to triple its non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030, Crisil said.

India's renewable energy sector is set to see an increased contribution to the country's combined installed capacity, rising to 57 percent share by 2030, market analytics firm Crisil said on March 6 in its India 2024 outlook report.

As of now, 42 percent or 180.79 GW  (giga watts) of  cumulative installed capacity comes from non-fossil fuel sources, according to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE). The ministry aims to achieve 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based electricity generation capacity by 2030.

The installed capacity is likely to grow a substantial 86 percent from 416 GW in fiscal 2023 to 770-780 GW by fiscal 2030. Non-fossil fuel sources are expected to constitute 90 percent of this additional capacity, Crisil said in its report. The report also flagged that the country is on a path to triple its non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030.

The predictions come amid government's target to cut carbon emission by 1 billion tonnes and  reduce the carbon intensity of the nation’s economy by less than 45 percent by the end of the decade.

Renewable sources (excluding hydrogen) should see a strong addition of 310-320 GW until fiscal year 2030, implying a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 18 percent from fiscal 2023, the report said. This would result in a 57 percent share of renewables in the installed capacity by 2030, it added, further noting that wind and solar energy segments will see the largest addition.

Solar module import

The outlook report flagged that India's import dependency with respect to solar modules is set to fall to less than 10 percent  by fiscal 2028, helped by government interventions and production-linked incentives (PLI) schemes.

Till September 2023, India imported modules worth $1,136.28 million, up 20.4 percent from FY23.

The central government is implementing the PLI scheme for National Programme on high efficiency solar PV modules. The scheme is implemented in two tranches.  Tranche-I has an outlay of Rs 4,500 crore, under which letters of award have been issued for setting up of 8,737 MW (Mega Watts) of fully integrated solar PV module manufacturing units.

Under Tranche-II with an outlay of Rs 19,500 crore, letters of award have been issued in April 2023 for setting up 39,600 MW of fully/partially integrated solar PV module manufacturing units, MNRE said earlier in January.