Motilal Oswal's research report on NTPC
NTPC reported standalone 2QFY25 EBITDA of INR96.7b (-8% YoY), 19% below our estimate of INR119b. Sharp rise in other opex (INR55b vs. INR34b in 2QFY24) led to the miss at the EBITDA level. On a consolidated basis, EBITDA was down 8% YoY in 2QFY25, while PAT rose 14% YoY, boosted by substantial regulatory deferral income of INR23b for the quarter. Standalone revenue for 2QFY25 at INR403b came in 3% below estimate (our est. of INR417b, -1% YoY) due to a decrease in the average coal price, which fell from INR3,791/tonne to INR3,584/tonne.
Outlook
Our TP of INR450 for NTPC is based on: Value of INR266 for the standalone business at Dec’26E P/B of 2.5x. Value of INR24 for other subsidiaries and INR64 for JV/associates at Dec’26E P/B of 2.5x. Value of INR91 for the renewables business at 14x FY27E EV/EBITDA.
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