Trading Plan: Will Nifty 50, Bank Nifty retest their previous day’s highs?

Nifty Trading Plan for August 13

The Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty were both under pressure after a day of rally, but defended the previous day’s low despite profit booking on August 12. Overall, the trend is consolidative until the indices give a strong close above all key moving averages. In the upcoming session, if the Nifty 50 rebounds, the 24,600 (10-day EMA) and 24,700 (previous day’s high) are likely hurdles. However, on the lower side, the 24,350 level can act as support. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty needs to close and sustain above 55,500 (10-day EMA) for an upmove toward 55,650 and then 55,900 (20-day EMA). However, 54,950 is expected to be immediate support, as selling pressure may widen below this level, experts said.

On August 12, the Nifty 50 declined 98 points to 24,487, while the Bank Nifty fell 467 points to 55,044. The market breadth was slightly in favour of bears, with about 1,392 shares correcting compared to 1,306 rising shares on the NSE.

Nifty Outlook and Strategy

Nandish Shah, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities

Nifty's attempt at a follow-up rally failed. After an initial rise in the first hour of trade to 24,702, the Nifty reversed direction and fell over 200 points from its high, settling near the day's low. The short-term trend of the Nifty remains weak, as the index is currently positioned below its 11-day and 20-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). However, the positional trend for the Nifty remains bullish, as it continues to hold above its crucial 200-day EMA, which is placed at 24,207. The 24,340 level, where recent swing lows were registered, continues to be the support for the Nifty, with the 24,200 level serving as the next major support.

FIIs' long-to-short ratio in index futures is at an extremely oversold level of 0.09, which is its lowest since March 2023. This oversold level suggests a higher possibility of short covering by them in the coming days. Therefore, our advice would be to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy in Nifty with a stop-loss at the 24,000 level. Nifty’s open interest Put-Call ratio fell to 0.79 from 1.03 levels on the back of aggressive Call writing at 24,500–24,700 levels, suggesting immediate resistance in the band of 24,500–24,700.

Key Resistance: 24,700, 24,950

Key Support: 24,340, 24,200

Strategy: Buy Nifty around 24,300, with a stop-loss of 24,000, targeting 24,700, 24,950 (cash levels).

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

The Nifty has been closing below the 100 EMA for the past 4 days. Over the last 14 trading sessions, prices have not closed above the prior day’s high, which is a sign of weakness. In this entire fall, Nifty could not sustain higher levels in any of the pullbacks witnessed over the past month. For now, any close above the EMA line will be the first sign of short covering. A breach below 24,430 can resume selling. Overall, the tone for the index still looks weak as long as we do not see a close above the prior day’s high. A break below 24,430 can result in a move towards 24,340 or lower. On the upside, 24,730 is the crucial resistance.

Key Resistance: 24,730

Key Support: 24,270

Strategy: Short positions can be created below 24,430 with a stop-loss at 24,520 and targets of 24,340 followed by 24,270.

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

Nifty managed to find support on the hourly chart at the 20 SMA level around 24,487. On the options front, there was unwinding in in-the-money Call options and writing in in-the-money Put options, indicating a bullish stance in the market. On the daily chart, despite the selling pressure, Nifty continues to maintain a higher high and higher low pattern, which is a sign of underlying strength.

Key Resistance: 24,550, 24,742

Key Support: 24,450, 24,350

Strategy: Traders can consider going long on Nifty futures if the index sustains above 24,450, aiming for targets of 24,550 and 24,700, with a stop-loss just below 24,450 to manage risk effectively.

Bank Nifty - Outlook and Positioning

Nandish Shah, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst at HDFC Securities

Bank Nifty underperformed the Nifty on Tuesday. The short-term trend of the Bank Nifty remains weak as the index is placed below important short-term moving averages. However, the primary trend remains positive, with the index forming a bullish pattern of "higher tops and higher bottoms" on the monthly charts and holding above its important long-term moving averages.

In the options space, the highest Put open interest is placed at the 55,000 strike price, suggesting support in the range of 54,500–55,000 levels. Moreover, the 20-week EMA is placed at 54,900 levels, suggesting strong support around those levels. Therefore, our advice would be to adopt a buy-on-dips strategy in Bank Nifty with a stop-loss at 54,000 levels.

Key Resistance: 55,590, 56,400

Key Support: 54,900, 54,600

Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty Futures around 54,600, with a stop-loss of 54,000, targeting 55,590, 56,400.

Ashish Kyal, CMT, Founder and CEO of Waves Strategy Advisors

For the past 6 weeks, Bank Nifty has been closing below the prior week’s low consecutively. Currently, prices are hovering near the important support area of 54,900–55,000 levels, which is also a 23.6% retracement of the prior rally that started in March 2025. Prices are now consolidating within a range of 54,900–55,650 levels over the past 6 trading days. For now, a break of the range in either direction can set the tone for the week. On the shorter time frame, RSI is showing positive divergence, so the possibility of sudden pullbacks cannot be ruled out. However, for any reversal, positive price action is required above 55,650 levels.

Bank Nifty is at an important juncture. A break above 55,650 can trigger short covering for a move towards the 56,000 mark. On the downside, a breach below 54,900 can resume selling in the index.

Key Resistance: 55,650

Key Support: 54,500

Strategy: Short positions can be created below 54,900 with a target of 54,670 followed by 54,500 and a stop-loss of 55,130.

Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta

On the daily time frame, Bank Nifty is forming an NR3 (Narrow Range 3) pattern, which is considered a high compression pattern and often precedes a significant breakout.

From a derivatives perspective, there was unwinding of in-the-money Call options and writing in in-the-money Put options, reflecting a bullish bias in the market.

Key Resistance: 55,200, 55,350

Key Support: 54,890

Conditional Strategy: Buy Bank Nifty futures with the support of 54,890 for targets of 55,200, 55,350, and 55,550, or below 54,890, sell Bank Nifty futures for a target of 54,500 with a stop-loss at 54,900.