Chartist Talk: Sudeep Shah targets 26,500 for Nifty next week, bets on 4 stocks but advises caution on ITC

Sudeep Shah is the Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

• Bank Nifty is also likely to continue its upward journey in the near term, with upside targets placed at 60,600, followed by 61,200, said Sudeep Shah.

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The prevailing chart structure suggests the Nifty 50 could extend its upward move towards 26,500, and subsequently 26,700, in the near term, said Sudeep Shah, the Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities in an interview to Moneycontrol.

According to him, the Bank Nifty is also likely to continue its upward journey in the near term, with upside targets placed at 60,600, followed by 61,200.

Among stocks, he bets on Glenmark Pharma and UNO Minda for next week. "Glenmark Pharma has given a consolidation breakout on the daily chart, while UNO Minda has posted a clear breakout above its downward-sloping trendline on the daily chart, signalling a reversal in trend," he reasoned.

He believes NHPC and Bosch look well poised to extend their upmove in the coming week, but advised caution on ITC after sharp fall last week.

Do you believe the strong consolidation breakout confirms that the Nifty 50 is on course to move toward the 27,000 zone over the next couple of weeks?

Indian equities kicked off the calendar year on a strong note, with the Nifty scaling a fresh record high. After touching 26,325 on December 1, 2025, the index slipped into a phase of consolidation, moving within a narrow 633-point band — its tightest monthly range since August 2023.

Momentum has clearly improved over the last four trading sessions. From a recent swing low of 25,878, the Nifty has rallied close to 450 points, largely supported by strength in index heavyweights. Participation also showed signs of improvement, as Nifty Futures rollover for the December series rose to 72.29 percent, compared with 68.77 percent in November and slightly above the three-month average of 72.28 percent, reflecting traders’ confidence in carrying forward positions.

The sharp move on Friday pushed the daily RSI above the 60 level, pointing to strengthening momentum and the possibility of further upside.

Looking ahead, the prevailing chart structure suggests the index could extend its upward move towards 26,500, and subsequently 26,700, in the near term. On the downside, the 26,150–26,100 zone is expected to provide immediate support.

Are you betting on the Bank Nifty to achieve a target of 61,500–62,000 during the current month?

Bank Nifty continued its powerful upmove last week, clearly outperforming the broader market with a strong rally of nearly 2 percent. The index delivered a decisive breakout from its falling channel on the daily chart, signalling a clear shift in market sentiment, and followed this with a sharp follow-through move. This breakout has pushed Bank Nifty to a fresh all-time high, underlining the strength and durability of the prevailing uptrend.

From a technical perspective, the setup remains decisively bullish. The daily RSI has climbed to 67.55 and is trending higher, reflecting strong momentum. The MACD histogram has turned positive, confirming a strengthening bullish bias, while the daily Stochastic oscillator continues to align with the ongoing upward momentum, indicating sustained buying interest.

With these technical cues in place, Bank Nifty is likely to continue its upward journey in the near term, with upside targets placed at 60,600, followed by 61,200. On the downside, the 59,700–59,600 zone is expected to act as immediate support. As long as the index holds above this band, the broader bullish structure should remain intact and any pullbacks are likely to stay limited.

Which two stocks are on your radar for December that could generate alpha following a convincing breakout?

Glenmark Pharma

Glenmark Pharma has given a consolidation breakout on the daily chart, moving above the Rs 2,000–2,055 range that capped prices over the last six trading sessions. The price action indicates renewed buying interest and a resumption of the broader uptrend. The RSI has successfully defended the 60 level on two occasions since December 26 and has now moved higher to 67, reflecting strong momentum.

Additionally, the ADX has started rising, signalling improving trend strength. The stock continues to trade comfortably above all key moving averages, keeping the bullish structure firmly intact. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 2,065-2,045 with a stop-loss of Rs 1,990. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 2,200 in the short term.

UNO Minda

UNO Minda has posted a clear breakout above its downward-sloping trendline on the daily chart, signalling a reversal in trend. The stock held its 100-day EMA twice during mid-December, highlighting strong demand at lower levels, and has since witnessed a steady recovery. The breakout is backed by a surge in volumes, adding conviction to the move.

Momentum indicators remain firmly supportive, with the RSI moving steadily higher and settling above 60. Additionally, the stock has closed above the upper Bollinger Band, indicating strong momentum, while the MACD line trading above both the signal line and the zero line reinforces the bullish bias. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 1,330-1,315 with a stop-loss of Rs 1,270. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 1,410 in the short term.

Do you advise buying ITC now, given that it has declined more than 13 percent during the current week, or would you prefer to wait for stability?

ITC witnessed a sharp price decline following the cigarette excise tax hike announced by the Indian government. On the technical front, the stock has seen a decisive breakdown below the key support zone of Rs 400–395 on the daily chart, accompanied by a strong surge in trading volumes, indicating aggressive selling pressure.

The RSI has plunged to around 15, reflecting extreme bearish momentum. On the weekly chart, ITC has slipped below its 200-week EMA and also broken an upward-sloping trendline, reinforcing the weak structure. It is advisable to remain cautious, as entering at current levels could be akin to catching a falling knife. Investors should wait for stability and clear reversal signals before considering fresh positions.

Are you bullish on Coal India after it posted gains for the fifth consecutive week?

Coal India gave a clear downward-sloping trendline breakout on the daily chart on December 22. Post the breakout, the stock spent the next four sessions consolidating and digesting gains, with some brief profit booking, a healthy sign after a sharp move. On January 2, 2026, the stock delivered a strong follow-through rally, closing higher by 6.85 percent, backed by a sharp surge in volumes, confirming bullish intent.

The stock has also closed above the upper Bollinger Band, which signals strong momentum and the possibility of an extended upside move in the near term. The Rs 395–400 zone now acts as a strong support area. As long as this support holds, the trend remains bullish and the stock is likely to move higher.

Would you consider picking up NHPC and Bosch for the coming week?

NHPC had been consolidating in a tight Rs 80–74 range since November 24. On January 2, the stock witnessed a strong breakout from this range, supported by a sharp surge in trading volumes, indicating fresh buying interest. The RSI is in a rising mode and hovering near the overbought zone, reflecting strong momentum. Additionally, the rising green histogram bars on the MACD point to strengthening bullish momentum.

Bosch, on the other hand, has delivered a decisive downward-sloping trendline breakout on the daily chart, backed by rising volumes. The Bollinger Bands, which were narrowing earlier, have now started to widen, a sign of volatility expansion and the start of a fresh trending move. The stock is also trading above key moving averages, reinforcing its bullish structure.

Overall, both NHPC and Bosch look well poised to extend their upmove in the coming week.