The market ended yet another volatile week on a mildly positive note, with the Nifty smartly defending the crucial 15,700 mark on July 1. On the first day of the July series, most sectors, barring oil & gas, helped the market recover and narrow losses.
The Nifty rose 53 points to close at 15,752 during the week ended July 1, taking support at 15,500 as well as 15,700. After getting support at around 15,190 in the previous two weeks, the index formed higher lows in the last week, which experts say is a good sign, with resistance at 15,900-16,180.
The index formed a kind of a bearish Hammer pattern on the weekly scale, and on the daily charts, a bullish hammer, which is generally a trend-reversal pattern.
Oscillators or sentiment indicators showed a marginal uptick on the weekly charts. The relative strength index moved up from 40.49 levels to 41.1. The Stochastic gave a positive crossover, climbing up from 17.6 to 19.4 levels.
"Till the Nifty trades above the 15,500 mark, one should continue to trade with a positive bias and look for stock-specific buying opportunities in the coming week," Ruchit Jain, Lead Research at 5paisa.com said.
On the higher side, he said 15,850-15,900 is seen as the immediate near-term resistance on the lower timeframe charts and a breakout should lead the Nifty to the retracement marks of 15,990 and 16,180.
Here are the top 10 trading ideas from experts for the next three-four weeks. Returns are based on closing prices on July 1:
Expert: Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail) at Kotak Securities
Mahindra & Mahindra: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,107 | Stop-Loss: Rs 970 | Target: Rs 1,180-1,330 | Return: 7-20 percent
The stock is forming a series of higher tops and higher bottoms, which is extremely positive. It has again surpassed its previous high of Rs 1,060 last week with the decisive dismissal. Such a pattern helps the stock to move into a new bullish segment.
The level of Rs 970 will be a great support for the stock and as long as it trades above it, the chances of reaching Rs 1,180 or Rs 1,330 will be bright.
The strategy should be to buy at Rs 1,110 and add more at Rs 1,000. Place the last stop-loss at Rs 970.
Bajaj Finserv: Buy | LTP: Rs 11,323 | Stop-Loss: Rs 10,700 | Target: Rs 13,000 | Return: 15 percent
The stock has bounced back strongly after completing a corrective pattern at Rs 10,727, which is positive. The breakout is decisive and depending on the formation, it can extend to Rs 12,300-13,000 in the next few weeks.
The strategy should be to buy partly at current levels and on the downside, at Rs 10,900. Protect long position with the final stop-loss at Rs 10,700.
Cipla: Buy | LTP: Rs 949.3 | Stop-Loss: Rs 900 | Target: Rs 1,030 | Return: 8.5 percent
After hitting the support at Rs 900, it is forming a double bottom. It has taken almost a month, which is positive for the stock and may help it move upwards.
It is advisable to buy between Rs 950 and Rs 930 for targets of Rs 1,000 and Rs 1,080, where the stock has a multiple resistance zone. Keep stop-loss at Rs 900.
Expert: Ajit Mishra, VP-Research, Religare Broking
Hindustan Unilever: Buy | LTP: Rs 2,282.35 | Stop-Loss: Rs 2,230 | Target: Rs 2,390 | Return: 5 percent
We’ve been seeing decent buying in the FMCG space and HUL is trading in sync with the trend. After a marginal dip, it has formed a fresh buying pivot while holding firmly above the support zone of multiple moving averages (100 and 200 exponential moving averages) and looks set for a surge.
We recommend creating fresh longs within the Rs 2,275-2,285 level.
United Breweries: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,495.5 | Stop-Loss: Rs 1,400 | Target: Rs 1,675 | Return: 12 percent
UBL has been trading with the corrective bias for the last eight months. Though it made a couple of attempts to surpass the resistance hurdle of the declining trendline but failed.
At the same time, it upheld the support zone at around Rs 1,400. The chart pattern and positioning of indicators are pointing towards the possibility of a breakout soon. We recommend accumulating within the Rs 1,485-1,495 zone.
Expert: Subash Gangadharan, Senior Technical and Derivative Analyst, HDFC Securities
Godrej Properties: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,227.8 | Stop-Loss: Rs 1,160 | Target: Rs 1,310 | Return: 7 percent
After correcting from a high of Rs 2,598 in October 2021, Godrej Properties found support at around Rs 1,130 in June 2022. The stock has found support around the same level recently past and it also coincides with the 200 weeks simple moving average (SMA). On July 1, the stock reversed its downtrend by crossing its previous swing high of Rs 1,230 during the day.
Technical indicators are giving positive signals, as the stock is trading above the 20 and 50-period SMA on the 60 minutes chart. Momentum readings like the 14-day relative strength index (RSI), too, are in a rising mode and not overbought, which implies potential upsides.
With the realty index also showing signs of strength, we expect the stock to move up towards its previous intermediate highs in the coming weeks. Buy between Rs 1,220 and 1,224, with a stop-loss at Rs 1,160 and target at Rs 1,310.
Mphasis: Sell | LTP: Rs 2,241 | Stop-Loss: Rs 2,370 | Target: Rs 2,040 | Return: 9 percent
Mphasis is in a short-term downtrend as it has been making lower tops and lower bottoms for the last several weeks after breaking the support of Rs 2,824. Recently, the stock slipped from the 20-day SMA and ended lower on the back of above-average volumes.
With the stock trading below key moving averages like the 20 and 50-day SMAs, the 14-week RSI in a decline mode and the intermediate technical setup looking negative, we believe the stock is headed lower in the coming weeks.
We recommend a sell between Rs 2,235 and Rs 2,245, with a stop-loss at Rs 2,370 and the target at Rs 2,040.
Expert: Jatin Gohil, Technical & Derivative Research Analyst, Reliance Securities
Ashok Leyland: Buy | LTP: Rs 146.3 | Stop-Loss: Rs 134 | Target: Rs 166 | Return: 13.5 percent
In the last week, the stock surpassed its medium-term supply zone (placed between Rs 139 and Rs 142) convincingly and rose to a seven-month high of Rs 149 with better volumes.
Its key technical indicators are positively poised on major timeframe charts. The stock has the potential to move towards lifetime high of Rs 153.5 initially and Rs 166 subsequently, which coincides with its prior highs (Rs 139 and Rs 153.5), connecting a rising trendline.
Havells India: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,111 | Stop-Loss: Rs 1,037 | Target: Rs 1,230 | Return: 11 percent
The stock formed a strong base around its prior lows (Rs 958 and Rs 1,037) connecting the rising trendline and is poised for a rebound.
Its daily RSI has witnessed a bullish divergence after a trendline breakout, which signals strength in the stock.
This could lead the stock towards Rs 1,190 and Rs 1,230 subsequently. In case of decline, the stock will find support around its prior swing low.
SBI Life Insurance Company: Buy | LTP: Rs 1,099.85 | Stop-Loss: Rs 1,033 | Target: Rs 1,185 | Return: 8 percent
The stock respected its lower band of the ascending channel and is poised for the next leg of upmove.
Its daily RSI again reversed from the bull market support zone (33-40) and gave a buy signal. In the past, the stock witnessed a decent rise after an identical buy signal.
The stock could move towards the upper band of the channel in the short term. On the lower side, the stock will find support around the lowest level of March 2022.
Expert: Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com
United Spirits: Buy | LTP: Rs 788.8 | Stop-Loss: Rs 754 | Target: Rs 830-850 | Return: 5-8 percent
In the last few months, the prices have corrected within a channel and the stock has reversed from the support end of the pattern. On July 1, the stock also gave breakout from a falling trendline resistance with better than its daily average volumes.
The 'RSI Smoothed' oscillator has recently given a positive crossover and is indicating a positive momentum. Looking at the technical evidence, we expect the stock to rally higher in the near term.
Traders can buy the stock in the range of Rs 790-785 for potential targets of Rs 830 and Rs 850 in two-three weeks. The stop-loss should be placed below Rs 754.
Chalet Hotels: Buy | LTP: Rs 327.65 | Stop-Loss: Rs 316 | Target: Rs 349 | Return: 6.5 percent
The stock had seen a time-wise correction in the last couple of months, where prices traded within a range and relatively outperformed the broader markets. On July 1, the stock gave a breakout from the resistance-end of this consolidation and hence the stock seems to have resumed its uptrend.
The short-term moving average has given a positive crossover to the medium term and the relative strength index (RSI) oscillator is in buy mode and has indicated a positive momentum.
Hence, traders can look to buy the stock in the range of Rs 328-325 for a potential target of Rs 349 in the near term. The stop-loss can be placed below Rs 316.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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