Three reasons why October RBI MPC is crucial

RBI governor Shaktikanta Das

The upcoming monetary policy may be one of the most important and interesting one to note for the country.

Will it be a unanimous decision to hold rates at the current level with the new monetary policy committee? Will we track the US market on rate cuts like how some of the global markets have responded and more importantly, does India perceive fresh threats to inflation due to escalation in political tensions?

Here’s more:

Tracking US Fed movement: This is the first policy after the US Federal Reserve slashed its benchmark rate by 50 basis points. While the larger expectation is that India may not track the US on rate cuts with fresh developments, especially on geopolitical tension brewing up and some of the lead indicators such as auto sales and overall consumption demand not turning out as brisk as expected, today's commentary by the RBI Governor will be closely watched understand the near term trajectory of India stands on repo rate.

New Committee members: This will be the first monetary chaired by the new external committee members, namely Ram Singh, Saugata Bhattacharya and Nagesh Kumar. The previous committee had 2 out of 3 external members, namely Ashima Goyal and jayanth R. Varma in favour of a rate cut. The expectation is that among the three new members at least one may be in favour of a rate cut. While the detailed deliberations of the policy may be out in a few weeks, today’s commentary by the governor will give a sense on the overall thought process around rate cuts by the newly constituted MPC.

Fresh triggers to inflationary pressures: The escalation of war between Iran and Israel could possibly have an impact on oil prices. While the current assumptions around inflation have been made estimating oil prices at about $85 a barrel and there is much yet to hurt these assumptions, the Governor’s commentary on crude oil price movement will be critical in determining how far India is from curbing inflation within the 2 to 4 percent band.