Technical View: Staying above 26,000 remains critical for Nifty’s record run; Bank Nifty reaches 59,000 with VIX at a 3-week low

Nifty Outlook for November 18

The Nifty 50 started the week on a healthy note on November 17, continuing its uptrend for the sixth consecutive session. It reclaimed and closed above the psychological 26,000 zone for the first time since October 29. With technical and momentum indicators aligned with the market rally, analysts believe that if the index sustains above 26,000 in the upcoming sessions, levels of 26,100 (October high) and then 26,277 (record high) cannot be ruled out. The immediate support zone lies at 25,900–25,800, according to experts.

After opening higher at 25,948, the Nifty 50 gained strength in late-morning deals and maintained its upward trajectory as the day progressed. It closed near the day’s high, rising 103 points to 26,013 and forming a bullish candle with a minor lower shadow on the daily timeframe—indicating a healthy trend with buying interest at lower levels, as well as signalling continuation of the uptrend.

The short- and medium-term moving averages also trended upward. The RSI climbed further to 65.12 with a bullish crossover, while the MACD is on the verge of a positive crossover, with the histogram showing consistent improvement.

According to Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research) at Centrum Broking, the overall structure remains strong, suggesting the potential for fresh record highs in the near term. In the short run, however, the index faces immediate resistance at 26,100, followed by 26,280, he said.

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, agreed with Nilesh, noting that the formation of a higher bottom indicates a rising market.

“The trend is likely to remain strong in the short term, with the potential to move towards 26,200/26,350. On the lower side, support is placed at 25,800,” Rupak added.

Weekly options data also indicated that the 26,000 zone is crucial for a move toward 26,100–26,200, with immediate support of 25,900–25,800.

The maximum Call open interest was seen at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 26,100 and 26,500 strikes. Maximum Call writing was observed at the 26,050, 26,100, and 26,000 strikes. On the Put side, the 25,900 strike holds the highest open interest, followed by the 26,000 and 25,800 strikes, with maximum Put writing at the 25,900, 26,000, and 25,950 strikes.

Bank Nifty

Banking stocks provided strong support to the Nifty 50, with the Bank Nifty testing the 59,000 mark for the first time. It rose 445 points (0.76 percent) to end at a new closing high of 58,963, outperforming the benchmark index. The index closed above the upper line of the Bollinger Bands and formed a bullish candle on the daily timeframe, continuing its higher-high, higher-low structure.

The momentum indicators for Bank Nifty also reflected a similar trend to that of the Nifty 50.

The Bank Nifty index has delivered a decisive breakout from its consolidation phase on the daily chart, signalling renewed strength in the banking space. This technical development suggests that the index is poised to extend its upward trajectory in the short term, said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

Based on the current chart structure, Bank Nifty is likely to test 59,500 initially, followed by the 59,900 level, he added.

On the downside, he feels the support zone has shifted higher to 58,700–58,600, which is expected to act as a strong cushion against any pullback.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear index, dropped below its short-term moving averages, providing a comfort zone for the bulls. It fell 1.26 percent to 11.79, extending its downward trend for the second consecutive session.

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