Technical View: Nifty on track for a record high if it sustains 26,100; Bank Nifty approaches 59,500 with strong momentum

Nifty Outlook for November 21

The Nifty 50 convincingly climbed above the double-top resistance around 26,100 and closed just below 26,200 with gains of more than half a percent on November 20, raising hopes of a new record high in the upcoming sessions, supported by strong momentum and technical indicators. The rally was driven by index heavyweights Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank.

The opening straightaway above the double-top resistance signals a strong presence of bulls in the market. If the Nifty 50 sustains above 26,100, the index can easily surpass its record high of 26,277 and march toward the 26,500 zone. However, 26,000 remains an immediate support, followed by 25,800 as the key support zone, according to experts.

After an initial hour of volatility, the Nifty 50 turned strong as the day progressed and hit an intraday high of 26,247 (very close to the record high). It witnessed some profit booking in the last hour of trade before closing at 26,192, up 140 points (0.54 percent), forming a bullish candle with upper and lower shadows on the daily timeframe—signalling continuation of the uptrend despite volatility.

The index continues to form higher tops and higher bottoms. A fresh bullish crossover on the daily MACD, along with further strength in the histogram, indicates improving momentum, while the RSI jumped to 67.66 while maintaining its bullish crossover.

“Given the constructive chart setup, the Nifty appears well-positioned to register a new record high and move toward the 26,400–26,500 zone in the near term,” said Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research) at Centrum Broking.

According to Osho Krishan, Chief Manager – Technical and Derivative Research at Angel One, the V-shaped recovery has generated robust momentum, suggesting that the prevailing trend is likely to continue.

“The support base seems to have moved up to the 26,100–26,000 sub-zone, which is likely to cushion any near-term shortcomings, while the sacrosanct support is placed around the 25,800 zone from a positional perspective,” he said.

Monthly options data suggests that the Nifty 50 may march toward 26,500 in the short term, supported by the 26,000–25,900 zone. The maximum Call open interest is placed at the 26,500 strike, followed by the 27,000 and 26,200 strikes. The maximum Call writing is seen at the 27,000, 26,700 and 26,250 strikes. Meanwhile, the 26,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 25,900 and 25,500 strikes, with the highest Put writing at the 26,100, 26,200 and 26,150 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty climbed close to 59,500 intraday before ending at a new closing high of 59,348 with gains of 132 points. It formed a bullish candle with upper and lower shadows on the daily timeframe, continuing its higher-high, higher-low formation and signalling strength despite volatility.

Impressively, the index has hit new record highs in every trading session this week, underscoring strong bullish sentiment in the banking space.

“From a technical perspective, the chart structure remains firmly positive, suggesting that the index is likely to extend its northward journey in the near term. Key upside targets are placed at 59,700, followed by 60,300,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical Research and Derivatives at SBI Securities.

On the downside, support levels have shifted higher, now positioned in the 59,000–58,900 zone, which is expected to cushion any short-term pullback, he added.

Meanwhile, the India VIX, which measures expected market volatility, remained around the short-term moving averages and well below the long-term moving averages, providing comfort for bulls. The VIX rose 1.36 percent to the 12.14 zone.

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