Sensex, Nifty to open lower as tariff uncertainty jolts investor mood; key levels to track on August 1

India VIX rose 3.01 percent, closing at 11.54. Despite significant negative cues, volatility stayed below the psychological 13 mark, suggesting that there is no panic or broad-based liquidation in the market.

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex are set to open lower, starting the new month on a cautious note as fresh tariff actions by the US weigh on sentiment. In a surprise move, Donald Trump has raised import duties on Canadian goods to 35 percent from 25 percent, keeping global investors on edge.

Dalal Street saw a choppy session in trade as investors weighed the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump imposing a 25 percent tariff and penalty on India. After opening with one percent losses, benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex clawed back gains to trade in the green. However, the last hour of selling pressure drove the headline indices back into the red.

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Here are the key levels to watch out for in today's session

The index has clearly defined its key trading zone and appears stuck in a consolidation phase with limited momentum on either side. Although buyers have shown interest at lower levels, strong supply persists near resistance zones, making a directional bias elusive. The support zone at 24,500–24,550 remains critical in the near term, while a convincing breakout above 24,900 could unlock further upside potential. For now, the Nifty continues to trade below the heavy resistance zone of 25,000, which also serves as a psychological barrier. Until this is reclaimed decisively, the overall sentiment remains cautious. Any short-term rally may attract renewed short positions unless backed by strong volumes and follow-through. Additionally, the long-short ratio, hovering around 14%, indicates an oversold territory, raising the possibility of a short-covering bounce — but only if the index breaks and sustains above the resistance zone.

"The index has clearly defined its boundaries and remains confined within a consolidation zone, reflecting a lack of strong directional bias. While there are visible signs of accumulation at lower levels, sellers have consistently emerged from resistance zones, preventing any breakout attempts from gaining traction," Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities said. "The 55,500–55,700 band continues to serve as a critical support zone, while a breakout beyond 56,500 remains necessary to trigger sustained bullish momentum. For now, the Nifty Bank remains lodged beneath a heavy supply zone near the 56,500 mark — also coinciding with multiple key moving averages. Until the index decisively conquers this level, the broader trend remains cautious," he added.

India VIX rose 3.01 percent, closing at 11.54. Despite significant negative cues, volatility stayed below the psychological 13 mark, suggesting that there is no panic or broad-based liquidation in the market. The subdued volatility implies that traders are expecting a continuation of the consolidation phase rather than a major breakdown.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has ticked up from 0.78 to 0.90, suggesting some bargain hunting at lower levels, although the upside remains constrained due to sustained overhead supply.

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