Indian markets poised to open higher; RBI policy in focus

Indian markets poised to open higher; RBI policy in focus

Indian equities are set to open higher on Wednesday, tracking gains in Gift Nifty. At 7 am, Gift Nifty was trading 150 points, or 0.64 percent, higher at 24,766.

Investor sentiment is expected to remain cautious ahead of the Reserve Bank of India’s bi-monthly policy announcement later today. The policy comes against the backdrop of a rebound in domestic growth, the Centre’s recent reform push through a Goods and Services Tax (GST) rate cut, and retail inflation staying well below the RBI’s medium-term target of 4 percent.

A Moneycontrol poll of bankers, economists and fund managers suggests a status quo on rates, with most expecting the central bank to maintain a ‘neutral’ stance.

On September 30, Indian benchmarks ended flat in a volatile session. The Sensex closed 97.32 points lower at 80,267.62, while the Nifty slipped 23.80 points to 24,611.10.

Technically, analysts caution that as long as the Nifty trades below the 24,800–24,850 resistance zone, sellers are likely to dominate. A breakdown below 24,550 could pave the way for further declines toward 24,300, keeping the near-term outlook sideways to bearish.

Meanwhile, the rupee extended losses, logging its fifth consecutive monthly decline to hit a fresh low. Persistent foreign fund outflows, a widening trade deficit, and limited central bank intervention have weighed on the currency, despite its trade-weighted valuation suggesting undervaluation. The rupee’s trajectory will hinge on foreign inflows, developments in US–India trade relations, and the dollar’s response to the US government shutdown, analysts said.

Global Cues Mixed

Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed on Wednesday, mirroring overnight gains on Wall Street even as concerns over a potential US government shutdown lingered.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 1.05 percent, while the broader Topix index fell 1.52 percent. In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.68 percent, and the Kosdaq gained 0.77 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.25 percent in early trade. Markets in mainland China and Hong Kong remained shut for a holiday.

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 0.41 percent to 6,688.46, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.31 percent to 22,660.01. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 81.82 points, or 0.18 percent, to settle at 46,397.89 — marking a fresh closing high.