Chartist Talk: Bullish momentum intact in RVNL, IRFC on price action and technicals, Nifty F&O expiry seen in 25,970–26,130, says Sudeep Shah

Sudeep Shah is the Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

Considering the Option writing data, Sudeep Shah, the Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities expects the Nifty monthly expiry to be in the range of 25,970 and 26,130 next week.

For the Bank Nifty, the monthly F&O expiry could be in the 58,700 to 59,350 range, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.

Overall, the price action and technical indicators point to a continuation of the current bullish momentum in IRFC (Indian Railway Finance Corporation) and RVNL (Rail Vikas Nigam). "RSI has sharply rebounded from oversold levels, reflecting renewed buying momentum, while the MACD shows a rising slope with increasing green histogram bars, suggesting accelerating bullish momentum," he said.

Do you expect the Nifty 50 to break above 26,000 next week, or will this level act as a strong support?

The holiday season clearly cast a shadow on market activity this past week, with the benchmark Nifty spending the entire period in a narrow 227-point range — its tightest weekly band since November 2023. The index touched a peak of 26,236 before slipping into a minor pullback, yet still ended the week with a modest gain of 0.29%. On the weekly timeframe, Nifty printed a Gravestone Doji, underscoring indecision at higher levels due to muted participation.

One standout development was India VIX dropping to its lowest weekly close ever, highlighting an unusual collapse in volatility and a growing sense of complacency in the market. Historically, prolonged phases of suppressed volatility tend to act as precursors to strong directional moves, making the current lull potentially significant.

Even as the headline indices moved sideways, the broader market displayed resilience. The Nifty Smallcap 100 surged with a spirited rebound, aided by sharp recoveries in several previously underperforming small-cap counters. Meanwhile, focused segments like Railways, CPSEs, and PSEs saw notable upticks, hinting that liquidity and buying interest are gradually rotating away from the Nifty and into select pockets of the market.

Looking ahead, the 26,200–26,250 zone is likely to serve as a key barrier for Nifty. A convincing breakout above 26,250 could open the door for a swift upswing towards 26,500 and then 26,650 in the near term. Conversely, the 25,900–25,850 band will remain an important demand zone and key support on the downside.

Bank Nifty has fallen below the downward-sloping support trendline (which had earlier acted as a resistance trendline). Do you foresee further weakness in the index?

Last week, Bank Nifty moved in a remarkably tight range of just 531 points — its smallest weekly range since late August 2024. The weekly candle reflected this with a compact body, signalling clear indecision and a lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers.

The index has been stuck in consolidation for multiple sessions now, and this extended sideways phase is beginning to weigh on the short-term trend setup. The 20-day and 50-day EMAs have started to flatten out, indicating fading momentum, while the daily RSI has moved sideways for 13 straight trading days, underscoring this stretch of stagnation and range-bound action.

Looking ahead, the 58,700–58,600 zone is likely to serve as an important support pocket. On the higher side, the 59,400–59,500 region continues to be the immediate resistance that Bank Nifty needs to clear in order to revive bullish momentum. A convincing move beyond either boundary of this tight range could pave the way for the next significant trending phase.

What closing levels do you expect for the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty on monthly F&O expiry day next week?

Considering the Option writing data, we expect the Nifty monthly expiry to be in the range of 25,970 and 26,130, while for the Bank Nifty, the range can be 58,700 to 59,350.

Are you bullish on Rail Vikas Nigam and IRFC after their stellar performance on Friday?

Both IRFC and RVNL have broken above their downward-sloping trendline on the daily chart after months of underperformance, signalling a structural shift from a bearish to a bullish trend. The breakouts were supported by a surge in volumes, adding strength to the move.

On the technical front, DI+ has crossed above DI– on the ADX, indicating a strengthening bullish trend. RSI has sharply rebounded from oversold levels, reflecting renewed buying momentum, while the MACD shows a rising slope with increasing green histogram bars, suggesting accelerating bullish momentum. Overall, the price action along with these technical indicators points to a continuation of the current bullish momentum.

Do you anticipate a continuation of the rally in Titagarh Rail Systems after its 14 percent gain over the past week?

Titagarh Rail Systems has staged a strong rebound from its key support zone of Rs 750–770 on the daily chart. The stock has broken above a downward-sloping trendline, supported by rising volumes, and now trades above all key moving averages.

On the technical front, DI+ has crossed above DI– on the ADX, indicating a strengthening bullish trend, while the MACD line has crossed above the zero line, signalling accelerating upward momentum. Overall, the price action and indicators suggest that the current rally is likely to continue.

Are you maintaining a bullish outlook on Hindustan Copper, Karur Vysya Bank, and NALCO for the coming week as well?

Hindustan Copper has surged nearly 29 percent in the last six sessions after a decisive breakout above the Rs 365 level resistance, supported by strong volumes, highlighting robust underlying strength. However, elevated RSI levels suggest the possibility of short-term profit booking.

Similarly, NALCO continues to form higher highs and higher lows, with the 20-day EMA acting as a dynamic support. With RSI deep in overbought territory, a healthy pause or mild correction cannot be ruled out before the stock starts moving higher again. Overall, the primary trend for both stocks remain strongly bullish.

On the other hand, Karur Vysya Bank has given a decisive breakout above the Rs 255–258 resistance zone with strong volume support. Momentum indicators remain firmly positive, indicating strengthening buying interest and scope for further upside. The stock maintains a bullish bias and is likely to continue its upward trajectory after the recent breakout.