Fractal Analytics shares expected to see modest listing gains on Monday; here's what analyts recommend

Fractal Analytics shares to list on Monday.

• Fractal Analytics IPO subscribed 2.66x, modest gains anticipated.
• Company valued at nearly Rs 15,500 crore, high-growth AI sector.
• Proceeds to fund debt repayment, R&D, and strategic initiatives.

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Fractal Analytics shares are expected to see modest gains on listing on Monday, in line with muted trends in the grey market, analysts said.

The initial public offering of the AI solutions provider Fractal Analytics was subscribed 2.66 times on the final day of bidding on Wednesday. The Rs 2,834-crore IPO received bids for 4.94 crore shares against 1.85 crore shares on offer.

The company had earlier mobilised Rs 1,248.26 crore from anchor investors.

Shivani Nyati, Head of Wealth at Swastika Investmart Ltd, said the stock is likely to witness a modest listing gain rather than a strong debut, based on recent grey market trends.

"Post listing, investors should adopt a balanced and strategy-based approach. Short-term investors looking for listing gains may consider partial profit booking if the stock lists at a premium, as high valuations and AI-sector sentiment could lead to initial volatility. Long-term investors may consider holding the stock given the company’s presence in a high-growth global AI and analytics market," she said.

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Fractal Analytics, a Mumbai-based enterprise artificial intelligence and analytics company founded in 2000, provides end-to-end decision intelligence solutions to large global businesses. The company derives a majority of its revenue from international markets, particularly North America.

It reported revenue of about Rs 2,765 crore in FY25 and a profit of around Rs 220 crore after posting losses in FY24.

Narendra Solanki, Head Fundamental Research – Investment Services at Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers, said the company has been selected under the Government of India’s IndiaAI Mission to build India’s first sovereign large reasoning model of up to 70 billion parameters, including specialised medical reasoning models.

"On valuation, at a FY26 annualised P/E of 79 times and a post-issue market capitalisation of Rs 15,473.6 crore, the stock appears richly valued. While rising AI-led insourcing poses a potential risk, the company’s diversified presence across four focus industries and long-standing enterprise relationships provide long-term growth visibility. Investors allotted shares may consider holding for the long term," he said.

Mahesh M Ojha, Vice President – Research and Business Development at Kantilal Chhaganlal Securities Pvt Limited, said in the absence of directly comparable listed peers in India or globally with a similar business model, the issue appears fairly valued given the sector outlook.

“Considering the company operates in a high-growth but high-risk segment, investors with a higher risk appetite may hold the investment. Fresh investors may wait for price discovery post listing,” he said.

The price band for the issue was fixed at Rs 857-900 per share, valuing the company at nearly Rs 15,500 crore.

Proceeds from the fresh issue will be used to invest in subsidiary Fractal USA for repayment of debt, purchase of laptops, setting up new offices in India, investment in research and development, support sales and marketing under Fractal Alpha, funding acquisitions and other strategic initiatives, and for general corporate purposes.

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