Tariffs didn’t choke exports: India cuts US dependence, redirects trade to West Asia and Asia, says report

India's merchandise exports have shown resilience despite tariff headwinds and global demand volatility.

• India's exports shift from US to West Asia, Asia, and emerging markets
• US export share fell from 22.5% to 17.8%; UAE, China, Saudi Arabia gained
• Electronics exports rose 37.3% year-on-year, showing improved competitiveness

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India's export market in recent months has shown a clear post-tariff rebalancing, with the country reducing its dependence on the United States and expanding its presence across other geographies, highlighted a report by Elara Securities.

According to the report, India's export market composition reflects a strategic shift away from excessive reliance on the US towards greater geographic diversification across West Asia, Asia and select emerging markets.

It stated "India's export market composition also reflects a clear post-tariff rebalancing, away from excessive dependence on the US toward greater geographic diversification across West Asia, Asia and select emerging markets".

The share of the US in India's exports declined from 22.5 per cent in the pre-tariff period to 17.8 per cent in the post-tariff phase. In contrast, markets such as the UAE, China, Saudi Arabia, Spain and Hong Kong recorded notable gains, indicating effective trade redirection and market substitution by Indian exporters.

The report mentioned that traditional European trading partners broadly maintained stable shares. Marginal gains in countries like Germany, Italy and Spain helped offset the moderation seen in the Netherlands and the UK, the report noted.

Elara Securities said this trend highlights the resilience of India's export ecosystem despite global uncertainties and tariff-related challenges.

The report expects export resilience to continue through FY27E. Merchandise exports are projected to grow by 4.5-5 per cent in FY27E, compared to an estimated growth of 2 per cent in FY26E.

Services exports are also expected to remain resilient, supported by the ongoing boom in GCC economies, with growth estimated at 12-13 per cent.

India's merchandise exports have shown resilience despite tariff headwinds and global demand volatility.

The report mentioned that this performance has been supported by sustained strength in non-tariffed and higher value-added sectors. Electronics, pharmaceuticals, organic chemicals and engineering goods continue to anchor export performance, with their combined share rising steadily.

On a year-to-date basis, electronics exports expanded sharply by 37.3 per cent year-on-year. The report said this reflects improved competitiveness and deeper supply-chain integration.

Notably, tariff-sensitive sectors such as marine products have also shown a recovery in export share, suggesting partial absorption of tariff pressures by exporters.

Overall, the report indicated that India's exports are adapting to a changing global trade environment through diversification, value addition and sectoral strength, helping sustain growth momentum despite external challenges.