IMD working to sharpen forecast tools in view of changing weather patterns

The national weather forecaster currently has more than 30 locations in its radar network, covering 75 percent of the country

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) is working to improve its technology and tools to issue better forecasts in view of the country’s changing weather patterns, said DS Pai, Head of the IMD’s Environment Monitoring and Research Centre (EMRC).

“IMD is taking several steps, increasing our radar networks to cover the entire country,” he added, speaking at a Moneycontrol panel decoding the recent IMD forecast for August.

Radars are used by the IMD for detection of various weather systems, such as thunderstorms, hailstorms and to track cyclonic storms. They are also used for rainfall estimation and hail warnings.

IMD has upgraded its conventional radars with Doppler radars using digital technology.

The national weather forecaster currently has more than 30 locations in its radar network, covering 75 percent of the country. “We are working on adding more in the next two years, and will cover the entire country,” Pai said.

India’s weather pattern has seen a swift change, the IMD official said. “In 2020, we updated the onset of the monsoon. While initiation over Kerala remains the same, June 1, we see that the progress thereafter has been slower,” he said.

There is generally a two-week delay in the monsoon reaching other parts of India, unlike before. However, once it reaches Northwest India, progress becomes fast, said Pai, noting that the monsoon now covers the Northwest by July 8 instead of July 15. The withdrawal has also changed, with the date moving from September 1 earlier to September 15 now, he added. The monsoon has moved by a week in the central parts, too, Pai told Moneycontrol. “Climate change has caused pattern changes. There are periods of very heavy rains, followed by long spells of dry weather,” he said.

With this, the IMD hopes to give better forecasts to farmers.

The IMD, per Pai, has also started giving short rain forecasts, extended rain forecasts and localised rain forecasts. “We are providing districtwise forecasts twice a week and are planning to move to block-level forecasts, which will give keen insights into weather changes,” Pai said.

The Ministry of Earth Sciences is also working on the Monsoon Mission of India, which is aimed at finding new approaches to improve monsoon forecasting.

The IMD’s Global Forecast System model’s resolution has gradually increased from 25 km in 2012, to 12 km in 2016. “We hope to take it to a 6 km range,” Pai said.

The IMD is also working on better dissemination of information, specially to farmer pockets, and is working with other agencies for the same, he added.

“Our forecasts have also improved over the years with rainfall patterns meeting our predictions,” the official added.

You can watch the full conversation here