Economic Survey 2026 pegs FY27 growth at 6.8-7.2 percent

GDP Economic Survey 2026

• India's economy expected to grow over 6.5 percent next year per Economic Survey
• Growth estimates surpass IMF and World Bank projections
• Investment and manufacturing drive recovery, boosting corporate leaders' optimism

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India’s economy is expected to log 6.8 -7.2 percent growth in the coming year, according to the Economic Survey tabled by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman on January 29.

“With domestic drivers playing a dominant role and macroeconomic stability well anchored, the balance of risks around growth remains broadly even. Taking these considerations together, the Economic Survey projects real GDP growth in FY27 in the range of 6.8 to 7.2 per cent,” the Economic Survey noted.

The government’s estimate is higher than the International Monetary Fund’s forecast of 6.4 percent and World Bank’s projection of 6.5 percent growth.

The Economic Survey this time has been released two days before the presentation of the Union Budget where all eyes will be on the finance minister to continue the growth momentum and attract private capex.

The Indian economy will likely grow 7.4 percent in 2025-26, according to the first advance estimates released by the government earlier this month.

Real GDP growth rose to 8 percent in the first half of the year, with the economy logging 7.8 percent growth in the first quarter and 8.2 percent in the second quarter of the year.

While the RBI projects 7.3 percent growth for this fiscal, with 7 percent projection for Q3 and 6.5 percent for Q4, economy could still surprise on the upside.

Moneycontrol’s Eco Pulse, a real-time tracker of economic momentum, indicated a steady momentum in December with a value of 53.7 helped by stronger industrial activity and robust rural demand. A reading of above 50 indicates stronger than average growth, while below 50 reading signals moderation.

The recovery in FY26 was driven largely by investment and manufacturing. Investment emerged as a key growth engine, expanding 7.8 percent compared with 7.1 percent in previous year.

Economists in a Moneycontrol survey were hopeful of the economy hitting 10.1 percent nominal growth in FY27, while over 70 percent respondents to a Moneycontrol CXO poll highlighted optimism about economy growing over 6.5 percent plus in FY27.

Nearly one in five respondents in the pre-Budget survey expect India’s economy to grow above 7 percent in FY27, a sharp improvement from last year when only a small fraction of corporate leaders were extremely optimistic about growth. The share of pessimistic respondents also dropped sharply. Only 6.5 percent of CXOs now expect growth to slip below 6 percent, compared with 15.6 percent in the previous year’s survey, pointing to improving confidence in the domestic macroeconomic environment.