Power sector results preview for Mar FY12: P Lilladher

Prabhudas Lilladher has come with its quarterly earning estimates on power sector for March 2012. Power sector experienced relatively lower merchant tariff rates, average rate being Rs3.5/unit (4.6/unit in Q3FY12) despite elections in three states. Capacity addition for January 2012 stood at 865MW (40% achievement), higher by 85% YoY. However, during February 2012, capacity addition stood at 972MW (which was 70% of target). Capacity addition YTD stands at 13332.5MWs which is 75.7% achievement.

As far as January 2012 generation goes, units generated stood at 74bn (flat QoQ and 1.2% YoY growth). However, February saw a MoM de-growth of 4% at 71bn units and growth was 7.5% YoY. All India PLF stood at 72.8% YTD. The short-term contracts comprised 10% of the generation.

On the result front, revenues will be affected on account of non-availability of fuel, backing-off by SEBs and increased costs YoY. Thus, we expect the sheen on the sector to gradually reduce, going forward. Even for hydro power and trading company like PTC, this quarter is not likely to be very good. For Q3FY12E, we expect our Utilities universe to register a YoY growth of 7.7% in its top-line and PAT is expected to de-grow YoY by 10.4%. We are excluding Lanco from our pre-quarterly review as its presently under review.

	Q4FY12E	Q4FY11	YoY gr. (%)	Q3FY12	QoQ gr. (%)
NTPC
Sales	148,477	155,189	-4.3	153,323	-3.2
PAT	25,827	27,990	-7.7	19,541	32.2
NHPC
Sales	10,837	11,381	-4.8	8,820	22.9
PAT	3,874	5,000	-22.5	2,594	49.3
Tata Power
Sales	64,901	50,155	29.4	66,599	-2.5
PAT	4,472	6,250	-28.4	4,027	11.1
Reliance Infra
Sales	54,890	37,979	44.5	61,287	-10.4
PAT	3,174	2,759	15.1	3,979	-20.2
PTC India
Sales	17,469	20,788	-16	13,300	31.3
PAT	80	223	-64.3	10	696.7

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