Ranbaxy to turn profitable with Q3 PAT at Rs 194 cr: Poll

Pharmaceutical firm Ranbaxy Laboratories is expected to report a profit after tax of Rs 194 crore in the three month period ended September 2012 as against loss of Rs 464 crore in a year ago period, according to CNBC-TV18 poll.

Revenues are seen going up by 27 percent year-on-year to Rs 2,656 crore in the third quarter of current calendar year.

Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) is likely to double to Rs 341 crore during the same period.

Operating profit margin is seen improving by 450 basis points YoY to 12.8 percent in the quarter on account of Actos + Lipitor generic’s contribution.

Important points to note for the September quarter

In the year ago July-Sept quarter, the company had reported a forex loss of Rs 651 crore. But in this time around the PAT estimate does not include any forex adjustment.

The street is divided in terms of their revenue estimates as the contribution from diabetic drug Actos generic is not known. The PAT estimate vary from Rs 119 crore to Rs 341 crore and the revenue range is expected between Rs 2,500 crore to Rs 3,228 crore for the quarter.

Nomura expect the PAT figure of Rs 997 crore as they forecast a forex gain of Rs 670 crore in the September quarter.

Ranbaxy launched Actos generic - a diabetes drug having a market of USD 2.7 billion - on shared exclusivity basis in August with 4 players. Analysts expect the market share for Ranbaxy at 25 percent and estimate of USD 45-100 million from 180-day exclusivity.

Its Lipitor generic is expected to contribute USD 27 million to the profit. Its exclusivity ended in May; hence the contribution will taper off as of second quarter of current calendar year.

The company still had 50 percent market share in Lipitor generic post 95 percent price erosion. In June quarter, Lipitor + Caduet generic (small drug) contributed USD 167 million to the profit.

Ranbaxy's Indian business is expected to grow by 10-15 percent YoY due to strong seasonal sales in acute therapy. In previous quarter, domestic business grew by 12 percent YoY to Rs 455.8 crore. As per guidance, the management had expected improvement in growth in second half of CY12 for India and South Africa.

Other markets such as Europe / CIS are expected to grow 10-15 percent.