NTPC Q1 PAT seen up 16% to Rs 2,417 cr

Country's largest power generation company NTPC is set to announce its earnings today for the quarter ended June 2012. Analysts on an average expect the profit after tax to grow by 16% year-on-year to Rs 2,417 crore in the quarter.

Net sales are seen going up by 13.3% to Rs 16,049 crore and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) are likely to go up by 31% to Rs 3,751 crore during the same period.

Analysts expect growth in topline to be driven by higher generation growth and plant availability factor. Generation growth is expected to increase by 6-8% YoY.

Fuel cost savings were on track in the first quarter of FY13, which is likely to lead to smart improvement in EBITDA margin.

EBITDA margin too is seen rising by 320 basis points to 23.4% from 20.2% year-on-year.

During the June quarter, the company has commissioned four power plants that increased its total capacity to 39,174 MW.

Power generation capacity stood at 32,722 MW at the end of March quarter. In the same quarter, average PLF was at 85% while coal based facilities saw a PLF of 88% and gas based facilities saw an average PLF of 67%.

Investors should watch out for coal supply, supply of gas for gas based plants, plant load factor (PLF) and plant availability factor (PAF) of its plants.

On macro basis, analysts feel NTPC will benefit from signing fuel supply agreement (FSA).

However, the downside risks for the company are delay in project execution due to infrastructure bottlenecks, risk of fuel supply to existing/new plants, ptential entry into boiler businesses and increased competition from the private sector.