Karnataka Exit Poll Results: Three polls predict hung assembly, Congress has a slight edge

Exit polls predicted a big mandate for Congress in Karnataka.

The Congress party is expected to get a majority of the seats in the southern state of Karnataka, predicted various exit polls on May 10. However, only time will tell its fate in the state; the Congress and Janata Dal (Secular) combined had formed the government in 2018 only to fall within 14 months.

According to exit polls conducted by Republic TV-P Marq, the BJP is expected to win seats between 85 and 100, Congress 94-108, JDS 24-32. TV 9 Bharatvarsh -Polstrat predicted 88-98 seats to BJP, 99-109 to Congress, and 21-26 to JDS.

Zee News-Matrize forecasts 103-118 for Congress, 79-94 for the BJP, while it predicts 25-33 seats for JDS. The ABP News-C Voter has predicted 100 to 112 seats for the Congress and 83-95 seats for the BJP.

Exit poll by News Nation-CGS has predicted 114 seats for the BJP, which is the highest projection for the party by any agency. The Times Now -ETG has precited 113 seats for the Congress and 85 for the BJP.

The Karnataka assembly election is being viewed as a crucial battleground for both the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with the outcome seen as a precursor to the next general elections.

Read: How the Congress can gain from the BJP sidelining its Lingayat leaders

In the previous election held in 2018, the BJP won 104 out of the 224 seats, giving them a comfortable position. However, this time the ruling party is expected to win less than seventy seats as per many of the exit polls, making them more susceptible to losing power in Karnataka.

In the lead-up to the election, both the Congress and the BJP ran intense campaigns. The BJP relied on centrally sponsored schemes and the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while the Congress made corruption and the alleged practice of taking 40 percent commission in administration its main campaign plank.

Read more: How dynastic politics killed a promising regional party

A win in Karnataka would give the BJP a foothold in south India and potentially prevent the Congress from forming a government in another state. Currently, the Congress governs in three states - Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. If the party wins a majority in Karnataka as predicted by pollsters, its cadres will be strengthened for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in 2024, when Narendra Modi will be seeking a third straight term as Prime Minister.

The JDS and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are also in the fray, with the latter having recently been granted national party status. The AAP is predicted to win around two seats in the state, building on its success in the 2022 Gujarat elections, where it won five seats. Meanwhile, the JDS, which had been campaigning aggressively to establish itself as a kingmaker, appears to have made little impact.

In its manifesto for the Karnataka Assembly elections, the JDS has promised to waive loans taken by Stree Shakti Groups, provide five free LPG cylinders annually, offer a Rs 6,000 allowance to pregnant women for six months, increase the widow pension from Rs 900 to Rs 2,500, and provide a pension to individuals who have completed 15 years of service.