Karnataka Elections 2023: Bengaluru city’s politicians are lording it over state politics. But low voter turnout isn’t helping

This time around, as the Congress and the BJP seek to aggressively woo the city voters, would one see an increase in voter turnout? Or will the election once again see a lukewarm response from the Bengaluru residents, resulting in the committed and mobilised voters deciding the electoral verdict?

As the weather in Karnataka gets warmer, the political temperature is also witnessing a sharp rise. The capital city , Bengaluru, with its rising middle class, has been the focus of a lot of attention in the upcoming Karnataka assembly elections. Bengaluru city has 28 of the 224 constituencies in the state – one-eighth of the seats. A focus on these 28 seats in the post delimitation phase (since 2008 – over the last three elections in 2008, 2013 and 2018) is indicative of some interesting trends.

City Of Ministers

One fourth of the members elected from the city (7 out of 28) are ministers in the Bommai government that has 29 ministers in all. Additionally, one MLA is the Chairman of the Bangalore Development Authority (BDA) – a position accorded ministerial rank. Moreover, two BJP MLAs from the city were part of the Yediyurappa ministry formed in 2019, but dropped subsequently.

When the Assembly was elected in 2018, 15 of the 28 MLAs belonged to the Congress party and eleven hailed from the BJP. Two were elected on Janata Dal(S) tickets. Four MLAs from the city (three  from the Congress and one from the JD(S)) switched sides by resigning as MLAs and winning the by-election as BJP candidates. They were all accommodated in the Ministry.

As a consequence, the number of BJP MLAs from the city rose to 15,  that of the Congress fell to 12 and JD(S) was left with one lone member. Four of the Congress MLAs from the city have been ministers in the Siddaramaiah government. The above narration gives a clear indication of the importance of the elected representatives from Bengaluru city for both the BJP and the Congress.

The city has always seen a close contest between the BJP and the Congress. The 2013 result was very similar to the 2018 verdict, with the Congress winning 15 seats then too. The JDS won just one seat and the BJP secured the remaining 12 seats. In 2008, the BJP did exceptionally well in the city, winning 17 seats. The Congress had 10 MLAs elected from the city and the JD(S) had one. The city has thus seen a keen tussle between the two major players, with the JD(S) winning one or two.

Preference For Incumbents 

A few more trends in the city merit attention. More than half the 28 seats ( 15 of them) have seen the same candidate (on the same party ticket) win the last three elections. Nine of them are from the BJP and six from the Congress. Will the respective parties field their sitting MLAs for a fourth time in a row? Are there any signs of anti-incumbency? Will these leaders win on their individual support rather than the party label?

The answer to these questions will become clear when parties announce their candidates and later when the results are announced. Additionally, one seat has returned the same candidate in all three elections, though he contested on different party labels (Chamrajpet).

In two seats in the city, the Congress has consistently won the seat on all three occasions, though the party has changed its candidates across elections. As many as ten seats have seen candidates from different parties winning the seat across the three elections.

Thus, 17 of the twenty-eight seats (nine held by the BJP and eight by the Congress), were safe for a party and they have won the seat each time since 2008, either on account of party support or because of the popularity of the party nominee. The remaining seats have been shuffled between the major players, principally the Congress and the BJP.

Low Voter Turnouts

These 28 seats are also among the seats in the state to witness a lower voter turnout in the assembly elections. In the last four decades (since 1983) in all assembly elections, the district with the lowest voter turnout has been the Bengaluru city district.

This time around, as the Congress and the BJP seek to aggressively woo the city voters, would one see an increase in voter turnout? Or will the election once again see a lukewarm response from the Bengaluru residents, resulting in the committed and mobilised voters deciding the electoral verdict?

A lot of permutations and combinations are clearly at work and don’t rule out the last-minute switch in party allegiances in the event of sitting MLAs or other hopefuls being denied the party ticket. Bengaluru is likely to witness a keen contest this time. It all now boils down to whether the three main parties can encourage the city dwellers to invest some time in voting and increase the turnout in the city.