Will Timothée Chalamet beat his idol Leonardo DiCaprio at the Oscars 2026? Here’s what we know

Timothee Chalamet vs Leonardo DiCaprio

• Timothée Chalamet is the favorite for Best Actor at the upcoming Oscars
• Chalamet's role in Marty Supreme has earned critical and audience acclaim
• He won Best Actor at Critics Choice Awards, boosting his Oscar chances

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As Hollywood waits for the Oscar nominations to be announced on January 22, one name is coming up again and again — Timothée Chalamet.

The actor has quickly become the centre of attention in this year’s awards race, with growing excitement around the possibility that he could win his first Oscar, potentially beating one of his own idols, Leonardo DiCaprio.

That prospect alone has fans buzzing. According to Polymarket, Timothée Chalamet is currently the heavy favourite for Best Actor, with odds sitting at a striking 77 per cent. Leonardo DiCaprio, who Timothée has often named as a major inspiration, is chasing his second Oscar and stands at 15 per cent. The gap reflects just how strongly the momentum has swung in Chalamet’s direction.

Over the past few months, Timothée Chalamet has steadily pulled ahead in prediction charts, critics’ lists and fan polls. Awards watchers say his campaign has peaked at exactly the right time, just as Academy voting comes into focus.

While this year’s Best Actor category is packed with big names, the conversation increasingly points to a face-off between Chalamet and DiCaprio.

Much of that excitement centres on Chalamet’s performance in Marty Supreme, where he plays a fiercely ambitious 1950s table tennis champion. The role has been widely praised for its emotional control and quiet intensity, with critics calling it one of the most mature performances of his career. What has truly worked in his favour is how widely the film has connected — not just with critics, but with industry professionals and everyday audiences as well.

Leonardo DiCaprio, meanwhile, is expected to earn a nomination for One Battle After Another, in which he plays Bob, a washed-up revolutionary searching for his daughter.

The performance has been admired, but many observers feel DiCaprio’s campaign has been calm and steady, while Chalamet’s has gathered real urgency.

That momentum received a major lift on Sunday when Timothée Chalamet won Best Actor at the Critics Choice Awards for Marty Supreme.

Also Read: Oscar Nominations 2026: Complete list of nominees by category

The win came over DiCaprio, even though One Battle After Another dominated the night, taking home Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay for Paul Thomas Anderson.

Directed by Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme is loosely inspired by real-life table tennis star Marty Reisman and has become an unexpected global success, helped by Timothée’s playful and highly visible campaign. Accepting his award, Timothée Chalamet said, "Josh, you made a story about a flawed man with a relatable dream," adding, "And you didn't preach to the audience about what's right and wrong, and I think we should all be telling stories like that, so thank you for this dream."

With nominations set to be announced by Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman during a live-stream reveal across 24 categories, the wait is almost over.