There is no reversal of fortunes on the cards for Congress, which has been on the decline since the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, with the grand old party expected to see just a marginal bump in its overall seat share, predicted News18's Mega Exit Poll on Saturday.
The News18 Mega Exit Poll 2024 predicted that Congress is poised to strengthen its presence in states like Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Maharashtra. The party may also see limited growth in Uttar Pradesh. But it will continue to struggle in the remaining states, where it was once a formidable force, according to the forecast.
Here's a detailed breakdown of the projections and a comparison with the party's performance in the 2019 elections:
Congress Projections in All India
According to the News18 Mega Exit Poll 2024, Congress is projected to secure between 62 to 72 seats in the Lok Sabha, out of a total of 543 seats. This projection comes with a corresponding vote share of 20%. In contrast, during the 2019 elections, the Congress managed to secure 52 seats with a slightly lower vote share of 19.49%.
State-wise Analysis
Telangana
In Telangana, the exit poll forecasts a potential increase in Congress's seat share, with projections ranging from 5 to 8 seats. This marks a significant improvement from the party's performance in 2019 when it secured only 3 seats.
Karnataka
Congress is anticipated to make gains in Karnataka, with seat share projections ranging from 3 to 7 seats. This contrasts with its performance in 2019 when it managed to win just 1 seat in the state.
Uttar Pradesh
While the exit poll suggests Congress may secure 3 to 6 seats in Uttar Pradesh, indicating a potential increase from its 2019 tally of 1 seat, the projections also highlight the dominance of the larger INDIA bloc, which is expected to secure 9 to 12 seats.
Delhi
In Delhi, Congress is projected to maintain a similar performance to 2019, with seat share projections ranging from 0 to 2 seats, aligning with its 2019 outcome of zero seats.
Rajasthan
Projections indicate that Congress could secure between 2 to 7 seats in Rajasthan, suggesting an improvement from its 2019 performance, where it failed to secure any seats.
Assam
While Congress is anticipated to face losses in Assam, with projections ranging from 2 to 5 seats compared to its 2019 tally of 3 seats, it remains part of the larger INDIA bloc, which is expected to secure a significant number of seats in the state.
Jharkhand
In Jharkhand, the exit poll indicates a mixed outlook for Congress, with the party being part of the larger INDIA Bloc. Seat share projections range from 2 to 5 seats, reflecting potential gains from its 2019 performance when it secured only 1 seat.
Haryana
The exit poll suggests a possible increase in Congress's performance in Haryana, with projections ranging from 3 to 5 seats as part of the INDIA Bloc. This contrasts with the party's outcome in 2019 when it failed to secure any seats in the state.
Andhra Pradesh
The exit poll indicates a potential decline in Congress's performance in Andhra Pradesh, with projections showing zero seats. This marks a decrease from the party's 2019 tally of 3 seats in the state.
West Bengal
Similar to Andhra Pradesh, the exit poll projects no seats for Congress in West Bengal, down from its 2019 performance when it secured 2 seats.
Madhya Pradesh
Congress's prospects in Madhya Pradesh appear to be uncertain, with seat share projections ranging from 0 to 3 seats, aligning with the performance of the INDIA Bloc in the state. In 2019, Congress managed to secure 1 seat in the state.
Chhattisgarh
Congress may face challenges in maintaining its seat share in Chhattisgarh, with projections ranging from 0 to 2 seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Congress secured 2 seats in the state.
Maharashtra
In Maharashtra, where a total of 48 seats are up for grabs, the exit poll indicates a significant potential improvement for the Congress. The projection suggests that the INDIA bloc, of which Congress is a part, could secure between 15 to 18 seats. This marks a notable increase from the party's performance in the 2019 elections when it managed to secure only 1 seat in the state.
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu, with a total of 39 seats, presents a promising outlook for the Congress party. The exit poll projects that Congress could secure between 8 to 11 seats in the state. Additionally, the INDIA bloc led by the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), of which Congress is a part, is projected to secure an impressive 36 to 39 seats. This indicates a continuation of Congress's strong presence in the state, building upon its performance in the 2019 elections when it secured 8 seats.
Kerala
The southern state of Kerala, with 20 seats, also shows a positive trend for Congress according to the exit poll. Congress is projected to secure between 12 to 15 seats in Kerala, reaffirming its significant influence in the state. Furthermore, the INDIA bloc, of which Congress is a part, is anticipated to secure between 15 to 18 seats. This aligns with the party's performance in the 2019 elections when it secured a total of 15 seats.
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