Why it’s not just about anti-incumbency in Haryana

Haryana, one of India’s most industrialized states with one of the highest per capita incomes after Delhi, Telangana, and Karnataka, will head to the polls on October 5. Up for contest are 90 assembly seats. In 2019, the BJP won 40 seats, while the Congress secured 31. Although the BJP emerged as the largest party, its seat count dropped from 47 in the 2014 elections, while Congress doubled its tally. According to Yashwant Deshmukh of C Voter, Congress could potentially become the largest party in 2024.

“It’s challenging in a way-I believe their back is right on the wall. Not much is in their control or working in their favour. Let’s start with anti incumbency. Ten years is a really long time. In our MOTN survey, the previous Chief Minister was not rated very highly, however they managed to win the last election simply because of Jat versus non-Jat dynamics. And also because the anti BJP votes got distributed between the local parties as well. But having said that, the new Chief Minister hasn’t been able to turn the tables for the BJP,” Deshmukh told Moneycontrol.

"Beyond that, in the Lok Sabha elections there is a 10-20% Modi dividend that’s missing in the assembly elections. In 2019, the BJP won more than 50% of vote share but crashed during the assembly elections held months later. Minus the Modi dividend, anti incumbency and a missing strong state leadership are all compounding the impact of some of the BJP’s recent policy announcements. The cloud of the farmer agitations still hangs low in Haryana which continues to be a strong agricultural economy, also the state sends many of its young men as Jawans to the Indian army and the agniveer scheme. The agnipath scheme was introduced by the Central Government on June 14th, 2022 for short term induction of personnel in the armed forces. Since the announcement, several BJP-run states have announced job quotas for agniveers, including Haryana. Significantly, the handling of the wrestlers agitation also has hurt BJP’s perception in the state," adds Deshmukh.

Meanwhile, the Congress party is being led in Haryana by a strong leader Bhupinder Hooda.

“BJP’s only hope is the possibility of the Congress not being able to cross the majority mark and then the party wins back other factions but it’s a tall task,” Deshmukh explains.

Economically, Gurgaon stands as Haryana's sole major success story, emerging as an island of growth and development. While the state became a hub for the automobile industry with a supporting ecosystem, it has struggled to replicate this success in other growth sectors. Haryana recorded over 8% growth in 2023-24, surpassing the national average, but analysts point out that Gurgaon, as a suburb of Delhi, primarily drives the state's GDP, with prosperity remaining concentrated in that region.

Haryana’s election is significant as it could set the tone for upcoming state elections in Maharashtra and Delhi.

You can watch the full podcast on how Haryana could vote, here: