BUSINESS
Budget 2023: Uncertain global outlook hasn’t fazed the government but mind the expenditure line
The Budget ticks most of the boxes like fiscal discipline, rationalising taxes and regulations, and increasing capex but the lower revenue expenditure could be a problem if unforeseen problems cause mass distress
BUSINESS
Budget 2023: Provide relief not stimulus
The government should focus on supporting and providing relief to the bottom of the pyramid and extend the ongoing welfare schemes but stay committed to its budgeted fiscal deficit targets
BUSINESS
India growth story divergent but not decoupled
In a growth-starved world, the Indian economy with GDP growth forecasts of ~7% in 2022 and ~6% in 2023 does feel like a decoupled oasis
BUSINESS
Monetary Policy | RBI’s move to ensure a safe and soft landing
With this policy, the RBI seems to have frontloaded the bulk of its interest rate hikes. Going forward, the pace of rate hikes may be calibrated and slow
BUSINESS
RBI can’t afford to take eyes off growth in the inflation battle
The consumer durables segment in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has been in contraction for six consecutive months since October 2021. Even IIP consumer non-durables have contracted for two straight months
BUSINESS
Budget 2022: Nurturing the growth recovery
It is good to see that the government is not obsessing over fiscal consolidation, while juicing growth a bit in FY23
INDIA
India’s economy is going great. Can the recovery sustain?
Indicators such as auto sales, consumer and capital goods output, cement production, steel consumption, and freight traffic have seen strong sequential recoveries though they continue to remain below their pre-COVID-19 levels
BUSINESS
Q1 GDP | Divergent and uneven underlying growth will need nurturing
We must remain mindful of the uneven and divergent nature of recovery along with below-the-radar scarring in the informal economy not being adequately captured in headline numbers that could impact the recovery and normalisation cycle
BUSINESS
What G7’s global minimum tax holds for India
A global minimum corporate tax rate of 15 percent is expected to be beneficial for India. The Tax Justice Network estimates the country to gain at least $4 billion, equivalent to ~6 percent of FY21 corporate tax collections
BUSINESS
Budget 2021 has its head and heart in the right place
Budget 2021 has the distinction of being largely an out and out infra-focussed budget, which is quite a departure in tone as compared to the oft-cited ‘consumption’ orientation
BUSINESS
Five numbers to watch out for in the Budget
These metrics are other than oft-cited ones such as fiscal deficit, headline tax and expenditure numbers, devolution to the states (as recommended by the 15th Finance Commission this year) and the nominal GDP growth number
BUSINESS
Four policy measures that will support the growth recovery
Directed sectoral support, sustained government spending, bad asset resolution and accommodative monetary policy are needed to sustain the recovery.
BUSINESS
Stimulus | Right intent, but design and conservatism may not yield desired results
Apart from intent, innovative thinking and timing, there are two other equally important factors that will determine the outcome of these measures: the design of the schemes and the implementation
BUSINESS
Kick-starting demand by consumption vouchers
Properly communicating the basis of the unlock measures and introducing consumption vouchers provide a cost-effective way of ensuring a swift recovery from the pandemic
BUSINESS
Will COVID catalyse an improvement in the household savings rate?
Households are likely to have a higher propensity to save, given the income uncertainties due to COVID-19
BUSINESS
A tale of two migrations
The economic impact of the fall in remittances from Indian abroad as well as migrant workers in India will be substantial for some states
ECONOMY
Opinion | The unfinished agenda for the next government
Whichever government comes to power must fast-track reforms to spur growth
ECONOMY
Opinion | RBI delivers a surprise and turns growth friendly
The central bank has also announced a few steps that will support consumption
