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Ravindra Rao

Head - Commodity Research

Kotak Securities

Ravindra V Rao is the Head - Commodity Research at Kotak Securities. Immediately prior to Anand Rathi Commodities, Ravindra was Heading Research at Motilal Oswal Commodity Broker Pte. Ltd. – one of the leading broking firms in India.His experience extends to precious metals, energy, industrial metals and agriculture markets across all instruments and related asset classes. He has worked on a wide range strategies including fundamentally driven commodity investment strategies as well as technical strategies. Ravindra is a prominent media speaker on commodities market. Ravindra has a MBA Finance from Mumbai (India) University.

ECB policy, US Inflation, Chinese data to keep investors cautious in the coming week

BUSINESS

ECB policy, US Inflation, Chinese data to keep investors cautious in the coming week

Traders may remain cautious ahead of critical data releases from China, while simultaneously hoping for more stimulus measures in light of consistently weak data releases and widespread losses among domestic property developers

US jobs report, China economy boosters to dictate commodities next week

BUSINESS

US jobs report, China economy boosters to dictate commodities next week

China impressed the markets this week by allowing some of its largest cities to reduce down payments for homebuyers and encouraging lenders to lower rates on existing mortgages and deposits.

Fed Chair Powell addresses inflation concerns, commodities market eyes US Jobs data next week

BUSINESS

Fed Chair Powell addresses inflation concerns, commodities market eyes US Jobs data next week

Volatility is expected to persist in the commodities market as the US gears up for a busy week, with investors closely monitoring the labor report, the PCE price index, personal income and spending data, JOLTS job openings, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the second estimate of Q2 GDP growth

Commodity markets | Spotlight to be on flash manufacturing PMI figures, Jackson Hole Economic Symposium next week

BUSINESS

Commodity markets | Spotlight to be on flash manufacturing PMI figures, Jackson Hole Economic Symposium next week

Market participants will keenly observe the speech by US Fed Chair Jerome Powell to discern the monetary policy outlook, particularly in light of the US economic resilience and the prevailing disinflationary trend.

FOMC minutes, China's retail sales & industrial production data, to be in focus for commodity investors next week

BUSINESS

FOMC minutes, China's retail sales & industrial production data, to be in focus for commodity investors next week

Commodities traders will also closely monitor US retail sales data next week to ascertain whether they remained subdued in July after a modest 0.2 percent increase in June.

Commodities participants assess global central bank statements ahead of key inflation data due next week

BUSINESS

Commodities participants assess global central bank statements ahead of key inflation data due next week

A potential decline in US inflation would likely be well-received by investors.

Bullish momentum in markets may push crude towards $82.50 a barrel

BUSINESS

Bullish momentum in markets may push crude towards $82.50 a barrel

Crude oil prices continued their upward trend for a fifth consecutive week, buoyed by signs of supply tightness and improving macroeconomic conditions.

Recovery in dollar may strain commodities; central banks in focus next week

BUSINESS

Recovery in dollar may strain commodities; central banks in focus next week

On the technical front, NYMEX Crude is trading close to a falling trend line resistance near $77.50 per barrel. Sustained closing above $77.50 per barel would give the bulls the edge to take the price higher towards the next resistance of $79.50 per barrel.

Copper, Zinc look positive amid bullish candlestick formations on short term charts

BUSINESS

Copper, Zinc look positive amid bullish candlestick formations on short term charts

Apart from optimism from a possible pause in rate hike, LME base metals received support from hopes of more fiscal stimulus from China.

Expect more volatility in commodity markets as several important indicators lined up next week

BUSINESS

Expect more volatility in commodity markets as several important indicators lined up next week

Investors cautiously eye US Core PCE, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, as any upside surprise could very much cement the case for a July rate hike.

Central bank meetings, US Inflation print to set the tone for commodity markets next week

BUSINESS

Central bank meetings, US Inflation print to set the tone for commodity markets next week

As of now, markets have largely priced in a pause for the upcoming June FOMC meeting. Additionally, worsening economic data prints from the US may limit scope for policy tightening in the coming months.

Base metals may get some support from additional Chinese realty initiatives

TRENDS

Base metals may get some support from additional Chinese realty initiatives

Most base metals held on to gains owing to softer dollar and surprise expansion in China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI, this week.

Commodity markets to focus on US consumer spending, labour reports next week

BUSINESS

Commodity markets to focus on US consumer spending, labour reports next week

US Core PCE is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3 percent MoM and 4.3 percent YoY for April. If it is unexpectedly high, it may prompt the Fed to keep interest rates higher for a longer time, leading to an upside in the dollar which will weigh on commodities

US debt ceiling deal to set the tone for commodities market next week

BUSINESS

US debt ceiling deal to set the tone for commodities market next week

FOMC meeting minutes, Fed’s preferred PCE price index and preliminary PMIs from US, UK and Eurozone will be in focus for the coming week.

Commodity investors await FOMC deliberations, Powell on policy guidance

BUSINESS

Commodity investors await FOMC deliberations, Powell on policy guidance

Uncertainty regarding the US debt ceiling lingers since meeting between the President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has been postponed until next week

Headwinds from US banks fallout, debt default fears to keep investors anxious

BUSINESS

Headwinds from US banks fallout, debt default fears to keep investors anxious

WTI Crude oil is trading close to the 200 period simple moving average support near $66/bbl. A break below the said support on a daily closing might pull the price further lower towards $62/bbl.

Any dovish tilt in Fed comments might be an upside trigger for gold prices next week

BUSINESS

Any dovish tilt in Fed comments might be an upside trigger for gold prices next week

FOMC and ECB will be in focus next week, both widely expected to deliver a 25 bps rate hike. We expect gold prices to ease a bit ahead of the FOMC, as Fed might reiterate higher rates for longer and no rate cuts in 2023. Having said that, any dovish tilt in comments might be an upside trigger for gold prices.

Volatility to persist in commodities in run up to central bank meetings

BUSINESS

Volatility to persist in commodities in run up to central bank meetings

As of now, economically sensitive commodities are struggling for direction as participants assess the latest inflation data and await more data before the major central bank meetings in the first two weeks of May.

More evidence of easing price pressures in US to support risk appetite of commodities amid recession worries

BUSINESS

More evidence of easing price pressures in US to support risk appetite of commodities amid recession worries

Chinese economic data’s will be keenly awaited as continued expansion in economic activity may hint towards first signs of an even recovery.

COMEX gold may near all-time high of $2,089 if US labour market slows down

BUSINESS

COMEX gold may near all-time high of $2,089 if US labour market slows down

Investors will watch out for extended weakness in inflation and retail sales from the US next week, both of which slowed in February.

Renewed investor optimism supports risk sentiment, US data to guide commodities market

BUSINESS

Renewed investor optimism supports risk sentiment, US data to guide commodities market

The oil market will track the OPEC+ meeting, though no changes in production quotas are expected. Markets will also react to US economic data if the banking crisis remains contained

Commodity investors wary of uncertain macro-economic environment

BUSINESS

Commodity investors wary of uncertain macro-economic environment

Risk off has returned with fresh concerns about Deutsche Bank. Also, the US probe on whether financial professionals at UBS and Credit Suisse helped Russian oligarchs circumvent sanctions will add to the uncertainty and keep investor confidence fragile

Uncertain macro-economic environment to keep commodity investors wary

BUSINESS

Uncertain macro-economic environment to keep commodity investors wary

Risk off has returned with fresh concerns about Deutsche Bank. Also, the US probe on whether financial professionals at UBS and Credit Suisse helped Russian oligarchs circumvent sanctions will add to the uncertainty and keep investor confidence fragile.

Wild swings to continue in commodities as fear dominates market sentiments

BUSINESS

Wild swings to continue in commodities as fear dominates market sentiments

Market sentiments remain fragile as the fears of a financial crisis are still far from being contained yet and hence volatile moves cannot be ruled out.

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