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Ravindra Rao

Head - Commodity Research

Kotak Securities

Ravindra V Rao is the Head - Commodity Research at Kotak Securities. Immediately prior to Anand Rathi Commodities, Ravindra was Heading Research at Motilal Oswal Commodity Broker Pte. Ltd. – one of the leading broking firms in India.His experience extends to precious metals, energy, industrial metals and agriculture markets across all instruments and related asset classes. He has worked on a wide range strategies including fundamentally driven commodity investment strategies as well as technical strategies. Ravindra is a prominent media speaker on commodities market. Ravindra has a MBA Finance from Mumbai (India) University.

Commodities may remain volatile with focus on central banks, global growth, China virus situation

BUSINESS

Commodities may remain volatile with focus on central banks, global growth, China virus situation

The next major event is US inflation data which may give further direction to Fed’s monetary tightening debate.

Dollar may correct further if US Fed delivers 75 basis point hike

BUSINESS

Dollar may correct further if US Fed delivers 75 basis point hike

The next major test for the dollar is the US Fed’s monetary policy meeting on July 26-27. While there has been a lot of discussion about the pace of rate hike, the Fed is largely expected to raise interest rate by 0.75 percentage point at the upcoming meeting and this has been factored in.

Commodities prices may struggle to recover till substantial correction in dollar

BUSINESS

Commodities prices may struggle to recover till substantial correction in dollar

The biggest reason behind weakness across commodities is the persistent strength in the US dollar. The US dollar index has gained more than four percent since the start of the year and tested the highest level since 2002.

Commodities may look at Fed interest rate decision, commentary, economic projections

BUSINESS

Commodities may look at Fed interest rate decision, commentary, economic projections

Market players may look at economic projections to gauge how long Fed will continue to raise interest rate at current pace and what will be its impact on economic growth.

Volatility may continue in commodities as market may try to assess if optimism about China rises further

BUSINESS

Volatility may continue in commodities as market may try to assess if optimism about China rises further

"Market debate about central bank monetary policy stance has intensified and we are seeing market players reacting to economic numbers and central bank comments to get more clarity about future stance," says Ravindra Rao, VP - Head Commodity Research at Kotak Securities

Economic growth worries may keep commodity prices under pressure

BUSINESS

Economic growth worries may keep commodity prices under pressure

Key events in the coming week include manufacturing and services PMI from China, US consumer confidence, and non-farm payrolls report

Commodities market to remain focused on economic numbers, central bank comments

BUSINESS

Commodities market to remain focused on economic numbers, central bank comments

Commodities attempted some recovery this week but there is still uncertainty if this trend can continue. The dollar is off the highs but may continue to be supported by US Fed's hawkish stance. Outlook for China may also remain clouded unless the virus situation comes under control.

Commodities register another gloomy week amid higher US dollar; to focus on US economic numbers, central bank comments

BUSINESS

Commodities register another gloomy week amid higher US dollar; to focus on US economic numbers, central bank comments

Overall, risk sentiment is quite weak currently and commodities and equities, which were performing quite well for the last few months, have come under selling pressure.

Commodities markets cautiously await US labour, inflation figures for Fed move

BUSINESS

Commodities markets cautiously await US labour, inflation figures for Fed move

China is yet to deliver on its promises of providing economic support at a time when even three-decade low growth target of 5.5 percent does not look feasible. Unless the mainland nation announces significant targeted measures, sustainable pick up in global risk appetite looks unlikely.

Commodities market to focus on Fed rate decision, Bank of England policy meeting

BUSINESS

Commodities market to focus on Fed rate decision, Bank of England policy meeting

Fed is largely expected to maintain hawkish stance however if the central bank acknowledges risks to the economy, it may also be enough to cause some profit taking in US dollar.

Commodities lose momentum, but supply risks relating to Russia, inflation concerns may continue to support prices

BUSINESS

Commodities lose momentum, but supply risks relating to Russia, inflation concerns may continue to support prices

The next major event for commodities is Fed's monetary policy decision in early May but until then commodities may get impact by development relating to Russia-Ukraine war as well as China's efforts to get virus spread under control and support economic growth.

Commodities on strong footing but volatility may continue amid several uncertain factors

BUSINESS

Commodities on strong footing but volatility may continue amid several uncertain factors

Key event to look for in coming week would be China's GDP and industrial production and retail sales data and manufacturing PMI from Europe and US.

Central banks’ stance could impact commodity prices even more, going forward’

BUSINESS

Central banks’ stance could impact commodity prices even more, going forward’

The key event next week is the ECB’s monetary policy decision. We need to see if the ECB, like the Fed, takes a hawkish stance to control inflation or maintains a cautious approach amid persisting geopolitical risks.

Commodities will continue to be volatile with central banks in focus

BUSINESS

Commodities will continue to be volatile with central banks in focus

The market focus may shift from geopolitical issues to central banks but that will do little to cool commodities that have benefitted from supply risks and rising inflation concerns

Commodities may remain volatile amid Russia-Ukraine talks, China concerns

MARKETS

Commodities may remain volatile amid Russia-Ukraine talks, China concerns

Commodities rallied sharply with the start of Russia-Ukraine fighting and have now corrected with talks continuing to resolve the issue. We are now in a wait and watch mode as more clarity is awaited however if no resolution is reached soon, supply concerns may revive.

Sharp fall in commodities unlikely unless any concrete efforts to resolve dispute

BUSINESS

Sharp fall in commodities unlikely unless any concrete efforts to resolve dispute

We may see volatility continuing as market players assess demand supply implications as well as monetary policy stance of major central banks

Russia-Ukraine | War tensions mark a new normal for commodities

BUSINESS

Russia-Ukraine | War tensions mark a new normal for commodities

Strong fundamentals may be supportive for metals and energy even if war tensions ease 

Demand expectations may dampen if commodity prices remain elevated

BUSINESS

Demand expectations may dampen if commodity prices remain elevated

The continuing war in Ukraine, increasing economic pressure on Russia, and lack of any major breakthrough in talks have fuelled concerns that the dispute may not be resolved soon and this has intensified supply risks.

Supply risks may keep commodity prices higher, unless resolution to Russia-Ukraine conflict

BUSINESS

Supply risks may keep commodity prices higher, unless resolution to Russia-Ukraine conflict

With persisting Russia-Ukraine tensions and no signs of any efforts to resolve the issue, market players expect US and other countries to keep pressure on Russia and this has kept commodities supported even if they are off the highs.

Commodities market to remain tizzy until diplomatic efforts resolve Ukraine-Russia stand-off

BUSINESS

Commodities market to remain tizzy until diplomatic efforts resolve Ukraine-Russia stand-off

Unless there is clear guidance from the US Fed, commodities market players may continue to look at economic numbers and central bank rate hike comments

Commodities set to end the week on a high as the dollar stumbles

BUSINESS

Commodities set to end the week on a high as the dollar stumbles

With the Federal Reserve still the key factor affecting currency movement as well as risk sentiment, the market focus may continue to be on comments from the central bank officials

Volatile trade may continue in commodities as market players shift focus from Fed to other central banks

BUSINESS

Volatile trade may continue in commodities as market players shift focus from Fed to other central banks

The key indicator for movement in commodities will be non-farm payrolls data next week which will reflect on the health of the labour market. Crude oil's incessant rise has also caused nervousness in the larger financial market and we may see more volatility as OPEC and allies will meet to decide their future production policy.

Hawkish comments from the Fed may further strengthen the dollar which may not bode well for commodities: Kotak Securities’ Ravindra Rao

BUSINESS

Hawkish comments from the Fed may further strengthen the dollar which may not bode well for commodities: Kotak Securities’ Ravindra Rao

"Market players are already anticipating a hike in March and this has pushed US 10-year bond yield to a two-year high while the dollar index has edged up."

Commodities may see volatility as market players square up position amid Omicron scare

BUSINESS

Commodities may see volatility as market players square up position amid Omicron scare

The year 2021 has been a good one for commodities as most benefitted from tighter supply and improved demand

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